Imagine: just three months, and the Baltics are on their knees, even without an invasion of ground troops! Lithuanian analysts are sounding the alarm, predicting capitulation under a barrage of missiles and drones. This is a frightening glimpse into the future that demands immediate action.
The Baltic Defense Initiative has presented a shocking scenario that ruthlessly exposes Lithuania's vulnerabilities, calling for their immediate rectification. Vilnius analysts, studying the lessons of the Iranian war, modeled a potential conflict, predicting a critical window for the Kremlin. They point to December 2027 as a period of deep political chaos in Europe and complete depletion of U.S. resources.
The scenario paints a grim picture: Marine Le Pen hypothetically leads France, pulling the country out from under NATO's nuclear umbrella. Meanwhile, the United States, exhausted from a year-and-a-half war in Iran, is left with empty arsenals, unable to defend its European allies. It is at this critical moment that Russia seizes the opportunity for its lightning-fast and devastating strike.
Hypersonic Nightmare and Total Devastation
First, the aggressor strikes key government buildings in Lithuania with hypersonic missiles, sowing panic and destruction. Then, the sky fills with waves of kamikaze drones crashing down on cities. According to the scenario, within 60 days, Moscow launches over 170,000 Shahed drones, turning Vilnius into ruins.
The aggressor methodically erases all infrastructure from the face of the earth: bridges, power plants, hospitals, and water treatment facilities. No Russian soldier invades, but the country finds itself completely paralyzed, plunged into chaos. Life in the cities becomes unbearable, and on the 90th day, a horrifying climax occurs when Moscow presents its brutal condition.
"On the 90th day, Moscow issues an ultimatum: all three Baltic states agree to Russian occupation, or Riga and Tallinn will be next," the report from the Baltic Defense Initiative states, exposing the ruthlessness of the situation.
Constitutional Trap: Lithuania's Achilles' Heel
Thibaut Devergrann, the founder of the initiative, points to another critical vulnerability: a dangerous legal gap in Lithuanian legislation. If the aggressor eliminates the president and the speaker of the Seimas in one blow, the state will instantly lose all governance. The constitution does not provide a clear line of succession, leaving the question of the commander-in-chief open at the moment of crisis, creating ideal conditions for chaos.
"We believe this issue needs to be addressed," emphasizes Devergrann, calling for immediate action. Analysts have already developed 200 specific proposals to strengthen defense, based on the French model of "sovereignty through strength." This is a powerful deterrence strategy designed to make any attack prohibitively expensive for a potential aggressor.
Is Europe Ready for a Major War? Opinions Divided
Experts' opinions on this scenario are sharply divided: some consider it overly pessimistic. However, Eastern Europe is not resting, and the Baltic states have already dramatically increased spending on modern weaponry. The Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service previously predicted that Russia would not dare to attack NATO in the next two years, giving Europe time to strengthen its defense. But it is categorically too early to relax.
The scenario involving 170,000 drones is based on shocking real production rates in Russia, making it extremely plausible. This is a harsh reality that must be prepared for urgently, so as not to be caught off guard.
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