Moscow continues to receive windfall profits due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Its revenues from the export of oil, gas, and fertilizers already exceed 10 billion euros per month, calculated the "German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade."
Matthias Schepp, Chairman of the Board of AHK Russland: Moscow is benefiting from rising raw material prices on the global market as it utilizes alternative export routes. All of this could "bring Russia an unexpected downpour of historical proportions," Schepp noted. Russia's profits from the export of oil, gas, and fertilizers have already exceeded ten billion euros per month, the chamber reported. A few days earlier, the chamber published detailed analytics on this topic on its website.
According to calculations by the Moscow-based lobbying organization "German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade" (AHK Russland), Russia is receiving high additional revenues in the billions of euros from raw material exports due to the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. "Russia is the main winner of the new war in the Middle East," said Matthias Schepp in an interview with dpa on Tuesday, April 7.
Chamber Analysis: With Current Prices, Russia Will Gain Windfall Profits
According to the head of AHK Russland, if the oil price remains around 100 dollars per barrel (159 liters), Russia can expect an annual increase of 71.8 billion dollars (62.1 billion euros). The price of Brent crude oil for June delivery has today risen to over 111 dollars per barrel, which is nearly 40 dollars higher than before the start of the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Currently, the Russian budget is based on a price of only 59 dollars per barrel, and the profits gained are likely to be used to finance Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine. As of February 2026, the Russian state budget was showing a deficit due to oil prices being below the planned level.
As dpa notes, "some in Moscow" are already hoping for an oil price of 200 dollars per barrel - in this case, according to AHK Russland, the profit amount would total 350.4 billion dollars, which is 247 billion more than planned in the Russian budget. The chamber also calculated what rising prices mean for Germany. "Along with additional gas costs, the German industry faces a price shock that could nullify the expected economic recovery in 2026," predicted chamber expert Thomas Baier, specifying that in such a scenario, Russia could gain up to 8.9 billion euros in additional revenues from fertilizer sales.
U.S. Treasury: Russia Will Earn Up to 2 Billion Dollars from the War in Iran
The previously stated analysis by the U.S. Treasury completely contradicts the assessment of the "German-Russian Chamber of Foreign Trade." As U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen stated in an interview with NBC News on March 22, the maximum additional revenue amount for Russia from oil sales amid the war that broke out on February 28 in Iran will be only up to two billion dollars. According to AHK Russland, this amount exceeded Washington's forecast by five times just in the past month.
As of April 11, the U.S. lifted sanctions on the sale of Russian oil and oil products loaded onto ships by March 12. According to Bessen, this decision was made by President Donald Trump to "ensure stability in global energy markets and maintain low prices" due to military actions in the Middle East. However, on March 11, the G7 countries announced that they had agreed not to lift sanctions on Russian oil.
