Trump's promise to quickly unblock the Strait of Hormuz may prove to be significantly more complicated than the White House claims. This is reported by the WSJ.
The President of the United States and the head of the Pentagon state that American warships will escort oil tankers through the strait. However, according to the publication, the U.S. Navy is not in a hurry to deploy ships into the strait, which is only about 21 miles wide.
Officers fear that Iranian drones and anti-ship missiles could turn it into a so-called "kill box" — an area where ships would be under constant threat of strikes.
One possible scenario is large-scale convoy protection. Military experts believe that up to two combat ships may be needed to protect each tanker or about a dozen ships for a convoy of five to ten vessels.
At the same time, constant patrolling with MQ-9 Reaper drones and strikes on Iranian launch sites along the coast will be required.
According to former Navy officer and Hudson Institute analyst Bryan Clark, such an operation would require "thousands of soldiers and sailors and significant financial resources, and it may need to be conducted for months."
Even in this case, the effectiveness of the operation will be limited. According to the analytical company Lloyd’s List Intelligence, due to security measures and the limited number of warships, the flow of tankers through the strait could drop to about 10% of normal levels. At such rates, it could take months to clear the backlog of more than 600 commercial vessels stuck in the Persian Gulf.
A more radical option is a military operation on Iranian territory. Some experts allow for strikes on the coast and the landing of Marines to destroy missile and drone installations capable of attacking vessels in the strait. But such a scenario would require thousands of servicemen and could escalate into a prolonged ground operation against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has about 190,000 fighters.
Moreover, even control over the coast does not guarantee safety. Iran possesses long-range missiles and drones and has already struck tankers in the northern part of the Persian Gulf, far from the strait itself.
According to military officials and representatives of the shipping industry, normal traffic of more than 100 vessels per day could only be restored if hostilities cease and security guarantees are provided by Iran. Without this, insurance and shipping companies may simply refuse to send ships through the dangerous area.
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