Iran is implementing a plan in the war with the US and Israel that was developed by the country's top command under Ali Khamenei shortly after the 12-day war in June 2025. It was prepared in case of a new conflict, writes Financial Times, citing a source in the Iranian leadership.
The plan stipulated that chaos should be provoked throughout the Middle East and upheavals in global markets should be triggered. The goal is to exert pressure on the US and Israel that would force them to cease the war, "Meduza" quotes.
According to a source for FT, the plan includes attacks on energy facilities and disruption of air traffic in the region. "We had no choice but to escalate the conflict and create a big fire for everyone to see. When our 'red lines' were crossed in violation of all international norms, we could no longer adhere to the rules of the game," the source stated.
The prepared plan, FT notes, was put into action despite the deaths of Khamenei and other high-ranking Iranian officials in the first hours of the new war. "This will continue. There will be further escalation. What did they expect? Do they really think that if the head of the Islamic Republic is hit, nothing will happen?" the source noted.
Part of the plan, as FT writes, involves decentralizing military decision-making — as a result, different military units can act in isolation based on general instructions received in advance. Therefore, the assassination of high-ranking commanders does not lead to disorganization of the military. According to the source, in June 2025, orders "came from above." Now, however, the military "on the ground" already knows what they need to do and act without waiting for orders, while maintaining coordination with the command center.
Attacks on the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and other countries in the Persian Gulf are part of the strategy developed by Iran. They are intended to "make any place where Americans might be located unsafe," as well as create risks of investors leaving the region.
The goal is to force Arab countries, which will be threatened by capital flight due to the unstable situation, to pressure the US to halt the operation. However, as FT writes, this part of the plan is very risky for Iran itself: Arab states, which have been trying to establish relations with Tehran in recent years, may, due to its attacks, instead support the US and Israel.
In turn, The Washington Post writes that Donald Trump likely has no long-term strategy at all that would determine what Americans should do after the assassination of Ali Khamenei.
Leave a comment