Russia Will Not Attack NATO in 2026 - Estonian Intelligence Service 0 10

Russia does not intend to attack Estonia or any other NATO country in the near future, according to the annual report of the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service on international security, published on Tuesday, February 10, writes DW. In the introductory part of this document, the director of the agency, Kaupo Rosin, emphasized that after the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Europe has taken measures that force the Kremlin to carefully weigh the risks of escalation. Therefore, the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service may reach the same conclusion in 2027, Rosin added.

He urged NATO countries to continue investing in defense amid Russia's military buildup. "The balance of power in Russia's calculations must always be in our favor," concluded the head of the Estonian intelligence service.

The Russian Defense Sector Grows at the Expense of the Civilian Economy

According to the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service, Russia's military-industrial complex (MIC) is feeling the effects of international sanctions imposed against Moscow but has learned to circumvent them. Since 2021, the Russian MIC has increased the production of artillery ammunition more than 17 times. The authors of the report believe that this indicates Russia's preparation for a new conflict, despite the ongoing war with Ukraine.

Moreover, Russia is producing a large number of drones for all branches of the armed forces. Therefore, the authors of the document believe that NATO countries should be prepared for the possibility that in a potential conflict, Russia may deploy drones on land, in the air, and at sea.

The authors of the report also emphasize that Russia's defense sector is expanding at the expense of the shrinking civilian economy, which has entered a phase of decline. However, a collapse of the Russian economy remains unlikely, according to the Estonian Foreign Intelligence Service.