The Center for Strategic Studies (CSIS) notes extremely high losses for Russia in Ukraine with minimal progress of the aggressor's troops. Analysts point to Russia's loss of status as a major power.
Despite Moscow's claims of growing success on the battlefield in Ukraine, available data indicates that Russia is suffering extremely high losses with minimal territorial gains and is gradually losing its position as a major power, according to an analysis released on Tuesday, January 27, by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (CSIS), writes DW.
Since February 2022, Russian troops are estimated by analysts to have lost around 1.2 million personnel killed, wounded, and missing. This exceeds the losses of any major power in any armed conflict since World War II. If current trends continue, the combined losses of Russia and Ukraine could reach 2 million by spring 2026, the document notes.
At the same time, Russian losses on the battlefield are estimated by experts to significantly exceed Ukrainian losses. The ratio of Russian to Ukrainian losses is approximately 2.5 to 1 or 2 to 1. The Armed Forces of Ukraine, according to analysts, may have lost between 500,000 to 600,000 personnel killed, wounded, and missing from February 2022 to December 2025, with the number of dead estimated to be between 100,000 to 140,000.
Minor Territorial Gains
American analysts note that Russian forces, after seizing the initiative in 2024, advanced an average of 15-70 meters per day during the largest offensive operations. This is one of the lowest rates of advance among major military campaigns in the last century. Since the beginning of 2024, Russia is estimated to have captured less than 1.5 percent of Ukraine's territory.
In 2024, Russian troops occupied about 3,604 sq. km of Ukrainian territory, which is approximately 0.6 percent of its area. This figure is smaller than the area of the American state of Delaware, analysts point out.
In 2025, Russian forces achieved several larger successes, capturing about 4,831 sq. km of Ukrainian territory, or approximately 0.8 percent of the country. At the same time, Russian troops regained control of about 473 sq. km of territory in the Kursk region of Russia.
Economy Under War Pressure
Analysts also note the increasing pressure of war on the Russian economy. The manufacturing sector is showing a decline, consumer demand is weakening, inflation remains high, and labor shortages are limiting growth. Economic growth in 2025 is estimated to have slowed to 0.6 percent.
Russia also continues to lag in key technological areas, including artificial intelligence. According to analysts, no Russian company is represented in the list of the 100 largest global technology companies by market capitalization.
Experts believe that the combination of military and economic factors indicates that Russia is waging a war of attrition, failing to achieve its stated strategic goals and facing long-term consequences for its military and economic power.
