If the pace of the offensive continues, Russian troops will be able to capture the Ukrainian-controlled part of the Donetsk region only by August 2027, predicts the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), writes LETA, citing UNN.
Russian troops first entered Pokrovsk on July 31 and have since advanced an average of 0.12 kilometers per day until November 26, analysts at ISW note.
"Russia has not captured Pokrovsk — a city covering 11.5 square kilometers — despite having been active there for more than 118 days," the report states.
"As of November 26, [the Russians] have secured 66% of Pokrovsk, which is a minor result considering the time and human resources spent — this involves at least elements of two combined armies that Russia has engaged in this operation," ISW emphasizes.
Analysts highlight that "the reality on the battlefield indicates that Russia's victory in Ukraine is by no means guaranteed."
"Putin and the army command are trying to present Russia as capable of quickly seizing the Donetsk region; however, credible data on the pace of advancement does not confirm that Russian forces will inevitably capture the remaining part of the region," the analysis states.
Russia has declared the completion of the capture of Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad as a priority, but it is carrying out this task slowly — Ukrainian military forces have managed to reduce the enemy's advance in Pokrovsk to a pedestrian pace.
The day before, the Ukrainian group "Vostok" reported that due to significant losses, Russia was forced to use reserves to storm Pokrovsk, attempting to break into the southern part of the city and push small groups into the central area.
Ukrainian defenders are holding back the advance, actively disrupting the enemy's logistics and using engineering units to construct defensive corridors.
