40 percent of Islamists who left Germany have returned 0 10

After the arrest of a 22-year-old suspected Islamist in Berlin-Neukölln, Federal Minister of the Interior Alexander Dobrindt warned of an "abstract, yet nonetheless high" terrorist threat in Germany. Just last week, another suspected supporter of ISIS was arrested in Augsburg.

If we translate this into numbers, the danger is no longer just "abstract":

According to a report by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, in 2024, there were 28,280 individuals in Germany affiliated with organizations under surveillance. This is more than the previous year (27,200 individuals). Of the 28,280 Islamists, 9,540 are considered violent.

Are ISIS militants training again in Germany?

It is known that since 2011, 1,150 individuals have left Germany for Syria or Iraq for Islamist motives. The concerning fact is that about 40% of them are now living back in Germany - approximately 472 ISIS supporters.

According to the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, they pose a security threat. This is due to the possibility that during their time in Syria or Iraq, they underwent ideological indoctrination and military training in the use of weapons and explosives, and may have gained combat experience.

According to the Federal Criminal Police Office, there is concrete evidence that about 65% of those who left Germany for Syria and Iraq participated in combat on the side of the "Islamic State" (ISIS) or supported them in some other way.

But who are these 1,150 individuals?

About 75% of those who went to Syria or Iraq for Islamist motives are men, while 25% are women, reported the Ministry of the Interior and Homeland Security in response to a query from the parliamentary group Alternative for Germany (AfD).

More than half of these individuals hold German citizenship. This number also includes individuals who hold dual citizenship.

At least 30 individuals left Germany again after returning - for example, as a result of deportation or voluntarily moving to a third country.

According to the Federal Criminal Police Office, until 2011, migrants primarily headed to the border areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Starting in 2012, trips to Egypt and Libya became more active. Since 2014, Syria and Iraq have become the main destinations.

What about the 472 individuals who returned?

According to a request from the AfD, 312 of the returnees are currently under investigation for committing criminal offenses related to their departure to Syria or Iraq. "As far as the federal government is aware, 111 individuals have been convicted so far, 119 preliminary investigations are still ongoing, and 122 investigations have been temporarily suspended," the document states.

The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution warns: "The threat of Islamist terrorism in Germany remains high." The situation has worsened following the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. According to the agency, Europe as a whole, and specifically Germany, are among the declared targets of the groups "Islamic State" (ISIS) and "Al-Qaeda".

The threat posed by Islamist terrorism in Germany remains high.

A study analyzing the situation of women and children returning from ISIS combat groups showed that members of this group exhibit signs of trauma and pose a particular problem for reintegration. The danger lies in the fact that traumatic experiences contribute to radicalization, according to terrorism expert Dr. Hans Jakob Karl Schindler.

In terms of numbers, Salafism is the most significant Islamic movement in Germany. About 11,000 individuals capable of Islamist terrorism belong to this religious group.

The greatest danger to Germany comes from the jihadism of the "Islamic State" (ISIS). Here, "Wilayat Khorasan" (ISPK) remains the most significant regional branch of ISIS," the report from the Office for the Protection of the Constitution states.

The Federal Criminal Police Office also warns about this: "The risk of violence motivated by jihadists remains high," the statement reads. The Federal Republic of Germany is within the "immediate spectrum of targets of terrorist organizations." This refers to ISIS.

To spread terror, ISIS relies on trained operatives and individuals recruited online. They then carry out attacks using knives or vehicles.

Schindler explains how this works in an interview with Euronews. "Since 2017, ISIS has changed its tactics," says the terrorism expert. ISIS radicalizes and recruits people online. The result: "Attacks with many small assaults."

Attacks in Germany

The perpetrator from Solingen: On August 23, 2024, 27-year-old Syrian Issa al-H. attacked festival participants in Solingen with a knife. Three people died at his hands. Several were injured. The terrorist organization ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

Knife attack in Mannheim: 26-year-old Afghan Suleiman A. attacked and injured six people with a knife in Mannheim on May 31, 2024. A 28-year-old police officer died two days later from severe injuries. It is known that the terrorist exchanged information about killing "infidels" on Telegram and gathered information about ISIS.

Attack on the Christmas market in Berlin: On December 19, 2016, a truck crashed into the Christmas market at Breitscheidplatz in Berlin, resulting in twelve deaths. More than 50 people were injured. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack.

Since 2000, a total of 31 attacks motivated by Islamism have been prevented, the German Ministry of the Interior reported to Euronews. "In a large number of other cases, planned attacks were prevented at an early stage," the statement sent to Euronews reads.

Recently, a 22-year-old perpetrator from Berlin-Neukölln was timely arrested, who was allegedly preparing a terrorist attack. Explosives were found in his apartment. Last week, a suspected ISIS supporter was arrested in Augsburg.

Overall trend since 2014

The threatening potential of Islamist terrorism has increased. According to the Federal Criminal Police Office, since 2014, the number of ongoing investigations nationwide has more than doubled. "The number of suspects accused of supporting or being members of a foreign terrorist organization has also significantly increased, both overall and concerning the region of Syria and Iraq," the statement reads.

This increase may be related to the faster spread of ISIS propaganda online. "In times of sometimes rapid online radicalization and online contacts between terrorist organizations and those wishing to carry out attacks, the legal and technical capabilities for (online) intelligence play a crucial role," the Federal Ministry of the Interior stated to Euronews.

But how can Germany effectively respond to this online radicalization? The Federal Ministry of the Interior refers to the legal policy requirements of the Federal Criminal Police Office: debureaucratization and "practical, modern, and effective development of the necessary data protection regulations."