Now Trump states that he will try to resolve the issue with China's involvement.
The summit in Budapest is expected to take place in November, predicts Moscow sinologist Nikolai Danilov. "When a yet unconfirmed meeting between the leaders of China and the U.S. is possible. Especially if the meeting with Xi Jinping does not happen - Trump will become even more dependent on Russia's position."
Meanwhile, expert Dmitry Drize points out: "D. Trump canceled the meeting in Budapest and will try to approach the peace settlement from China's side; it is unlikely to yield any positive results, but it will be pleasing for Beijing.
The Trump administration included a filter in the form of Secretary of State M. Rubio. His one phone call with S. Lavrov was enough to cancel Budapest, at least for now. The question is not how someone spoke, but the key issue - the readiness to freeze the conflict along the combat line. Moscow responded negatively, and Budapest fell through. Immediately, U.S. sanctions against Russian oil companies were imposed, and the 19th package of EU sanctions came into effect.
Now Trump states that he will try to resolve the issue with Beijing's involvement and publicly bets on communication with Xi Jinping. Although Moscow and Beijing act in concert on this issue, within the agreed corridors of possibilities.
Beijing can certainly expedite the resolution of the conflict in the post-Soviet space, but it needs very compelling reasons for that. Trump will be offered a price that will be unbearable for him. China, if we omit important details, is satisfied with the conflict in its current phase. The nuclear rhetoric is unacceptable for Beijing; however, it does not sound as pronounced as it did in 2023. In other respects, China is increasingly satisfied, and they see no particular sense in trying to pressure Moscow on this issue. Moreover, these pressure opportunities should not be overestimated.
Therefore, Trump's assertiveness from the Chinese side is unlikely to be successful, but the American president is persistently attempting to coerce the parties to peace. All this resembles a fight against windmills, but Trump is clearly not Don Quixote, but a pragmatist who is finding his way. For Trump, this has become a challenge that he has accepted. This psychological moment is much more important than the Nobel Prize.
For a long time, Trump did not want to talk to China about the post-Soviet conflict, but now he is willing. This is what Beijing needs, but at this stage, agreements are extremely unlikely. Therefore, having hit a wall with China, Trump will again turn his gaze towards the Kremlin. Although Rubio and many others advise Trump to reduce his involvement in the post-Soviet conflict. Primarily public involvement, but not only public, but also actual."
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