Russia is also learning to achieve the effect of air interception on the battlefield in the enemy's rear.
Russia is increasing the production of T-90 tanks and restoring pre-war tank reserves, indicating its intention to create a long-term military threat to NATO. This is reported by analysts from the Institute for the Study of War.
Thus, Frontelligence Insight published internal documents from the main Russian tank manufacturer, Uralvagonzavod (UVZ), which indicate that UVZ intends to increase T-90 production by 80 percent by 2028 compared to 2024 levels and to begin production of a new modification, the T-90M2.
"According to Frontelligence estimates, UVZ's goals for modernizing the Russian armored fleet of more than 2000 T-90M, T-90M2, and T-72B3M tanks from 2026 to 2036, in addition to tanks and armored vehicles produced by Russia in 2024 and 2025, are sufficient to fully replenish Russia's tank fleet before the next large-scale war," the report states.
Recent data from open sources indicate that Russia is also increasing the repair volumes of T-72 tanks. ISW also notes a significant reduction in the use of Russian tanks on the battlefield. This suggests that Russia may be stockpiling tanks and is likely aiming to build up and modernize its tank reserves for both short-term use in Ukraine and in the medium and long term as part of preparations for a potential conflict with NATO.
At the same time, analysts warn: Russia may pose a serious threat to NATO much earlier than 2036 and without the need to restore its tank fleet. They suggest that Russia may maintain and replenish its manpower despite consistently heavy losses in the ongoing war in Ukraine.
They note that Russia is likely to have significant combat power available for several months after the end of active hostilities in Ukraine, which it could quickly redeploy to NATO's eastern flank. Russia is also developing operational concepts and tactics that allow for large-scale combat operations without the use of a large number of tanks or armored vehicles, while effectively depriving the enemy of the ability to use tanks or armored vehicles on a large scale. Russia is also learning to achieve the effect of air interception on the battlefield in the enemy's rear without establishing air superiority or air dominance:
"ISW has found no signs that the Russian military command will have to wait for the Russian armed forces to fully recover before ramping up its attacks on NATO member states, and, in fact, Russia could attack before that moment if NATO fails to provide deterrence."
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