By promoting propaganda of inevitable victory, Russia hopes that the U.S. and Europe will lose their will.
Russia has failed to achieve its primary goal — the destruction of the Ukrainian nation, writes the renowned scholar Yuval Noah Harari in a column for the Financial Times.
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"Contrary to the narrative promoted by Russian propaganda, Ukraine is winning the war. Even U.S. President Donald Trump, who in February 2025 advised Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to concede to Russian demands because 'you have no cards in hand,' stated this week that 'Ukraine, with the support of the European Union, is capable of fighting and WINNING.'
When the conflict began in 2014, Ukraine seemed utterly helpless in the face of Russian aggression, and the Russians easily captured Crimea and part of eastern Ukraine. The war entered a more intense phase on February 24, 2022, when Russia launched a full-scale invasion to conquer all of Ukraine and end its existence as an independent state.
At that time, Russian leadership and observers around the world expected Russia to capture Kyiv and completely defeat the Ukrainian army within days. Even Ukraine's Western allies were so doubtful of its chances of resistance that they offered to evacuate President Zelensky and his team to help them establish a government in exile.
But Zelensky decided to stay in Kyiv and fight: 'I need ammunition, not evacuation.'
Ukrainian forces, outgunned by the Russians, astonished the world by repelling the advance on Kyiv. Then, the Ukrainian army launched a counteroffensive in late summer 2022, achieving two major victories in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions and liberating significant territory captured by Russia in the early months of the invasion.
Since then, despite individual local successes by both sides, the front line has not changed significantly. Russia tries to create the impression of steady progress, but in fact, since spring 2022, it has failed to capture any major strategically significant targets such as Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Kherson.
By 2025, having lost between 200,000 and 300,000 killed and wounded, the Russian army had managed to capture only a narrow strip of border zone, about 0.6% of Ukraine's territory. At the pace of 2025, it would theoretically take the Russians about 100 years and tens of millions of casualties to conquer the rest of Ukraine. By August 2025, Russia controlled less Ukrainian territory than in August 2022.
The situation resembles the Western Front of World War I, where ruthless generals sacrificed tens of thousands of soldiers for the capture of a few kilometers of ruins in the mud. Patriotic newspapers often concealed the scale of these madnesses by printing maps that supposedly showed major advances. But the most important element of these maps was their scale. As historian Toby Tucker noted, World War I newspapers often used deliberately large scales, "which made 'advances' outwardly impressive, but any discerning reader could see that... they were insignificant. In many newspapers, the precise geographical details directly contradicted the constant reports of 'achievements' and 'breakthroughs.'"
The same can be said about Russia's recent 'advances.' From a military standpoint, it makes sense for Ukraine to tactically retreat, conserving forces and soldiers' lives, allowing Russia to bleed in costly attacks for negligible results. The truth is that Ukraine has managed to bring the war to a stalemate.
As recently noted by retired Australian Major General Mick Ryan, it resembles a situation where, more than three years after the invasion of Iraq in 2003, the U.S. would have managed to capture only 20% of the country at the cost of a million casualties. Would anyone call that an American victory?
At sea, Ukraine's achievements are equally impressive. On February 24, 2022, the Russian Black Sea Fleet had absolute superiority, and it seemed that Ukraine had no means to counter it. One of the most famous episodes of that day was the incident at Snake Island. The flagship of the Black Sea Fleet, the missile cruiser Moskva, radioed a small garrison: 'I am a Russian warship. I suggest you lay down your arms and surrender to avoid bloodshed and unnecessary casualties.' In response, the garrison transmitted: 'Russian warship, go fuck yourself.'
Snake Island was soon captured by Russia, but by the end of June 2022, the Ukrainians had retaken it. By that time, the Moskva and many other Russian ships were already lying on the bottom of the Black Sea. Through innovative use of missiles and drones, the Ukrainians managed to neutralize Russian naval superiority, change the very nature of naval warfare, and drive the remnants of the Black Sea Fleet into shelters far from the front line.
In the air, Russia has also failed. Israel, during a 12-day war with Iran in June 2025, gained control of Iranian airspace in about 36 hours without losing a single aircraft, while Russia has still been unable to achieve air superiority over Ukraine. The Russian Air Force has suffered devastating losses — especially during Ukraine's strike on Russia's strategic bombers in June.
In response, Russia began to rely on long-range missiles and drones, terrorizing Ukrainian cities. Ukraine refrains from a tit-for-tat response and mainly avoids strikes on civilian targets in Russia, but Ukrainian drones have shown the ability to hit airfields and infrastructure, particularly oil refineries, hundreds of kilometers deep into Russian territory.
Ukraine has achieved all this without any direct military intervention from abroad. So far, the only third party to directly enter the war has been North Korea, which sent over 10,000 soldiers to fight on the side of Russia. NATO countries have provided Ukraine with enormous assistance in arms and resources, but no NATO country has officially participated in combat operations.
It should also be noted that until February 24, 2022, and for a long time after that date, NATO countries refused to transfer many types of heavier and more modern weapons to Ukraine and limited the use of transferred types. Some of the restrictions are still in place.
Ukraine's victories in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Kherson in 2022 were achieved with a very limited arsenal. Had Ukraine received full support from the very beginning, it could very well have won the war by the end of 2022 or the summer of 2023, before Russia had time to rebuild its army and establish a military economy.
In 2025, the weakest link in Ukraine's defense remains in the minds of its Western friends. As Russia has failed to achieve air and naval superiority, as well as break through Ukrainian defenses on land, its strategy is now aimed at circumventing Ukrainian positions by undermining the resolve of Americans and Europeans.
By promoting propaganda of inevitable victory, Russia hopes that the U.S. and Europe will lose their will, withdraw support for Ukraine, and force it to capitulate. To give in to this propaganda would mean allowing a catastrophe not only for Ukraine but also for NATO countries, which would lose much of their reputation, as well as their best shield against the growing Russian threat.
While Russia continues to expand its army and invest in a militarized economy, Europe is urgently rearming, but today the largest and most experienced force standing between the Russian army and Warsaw, Berlin, or Paris is the Ukrainian army. The Polish, German, and French armies each number about 200,000 troops, most of whom have never engaged in combat. The Ukrainian army, in contrast, has about one million soldiers, and most of them are experienced veterans.
For two weeks now, Russian planes and drones have been invading the airspace of NATO countries — Estonia, Poland, Romania, possibly Denmark. Isn't it time for Europeans to consider: if Russia attacks Europe tomorrow, and the U.S. decides not to intervene, the largest military force in Europe will be the Ukrainian army? The U.S. Army could also learn a lot from Ukraine — both in combat experience and in advanced weaponry. Especially in the field of drone warfare, where Ukraine's innovations and accumulated data make it a world leader. Perhaps that is why President Trump has recently begun to speak in support of Ukraine. He likes to bet on winners.
It is impossible to predict how the war will unfold, as it depends on future decisions. But in one key aspect, Ukraine's victory is already decisive and irreversible. War is the continuation of politics by other means. The side that has captured more land, destroyed more cities, or killed more people does not win. The side that has achieved its political goals wins. And in the case of Ukraine, it is already clear that Putin has failed to achieve his main goal — the destruction of the Ukrainian nation.
In many of his speeches and articles, Putin has claimed that Ukraine has never been a real nation. This, for example, was the main content of his lengthy essay 'On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians,' published in July 2021. According to Putin, Ukraine is an artificial entity supported by foreign powers as a tool to weaken Russia. He started the war to prove to the world that the Ukrainian nation does not exist, that Ukrainians are actually Russians, and that if given the chance, they would gladly merge into Mother Russia.
No one knows how many more people will die because of Putin's delusions and ambitions, but it is clear that Ukraine is a genuine nation, and millions of Ukrainians are ready to fight with all their might just to remain independent from Russia.
Nations are born not from clumps of earth and not from drops of blood. They are born from stories, images, and memories that live in the minds of people. And whatever the course of the war in the coming months, the memory of the Russian invasion, of Russian atrocities, and of Ukrainian victims will fuel Ukrainian patriotism for generations to come.
