Scientists have warned of the critical state of one of the most famous fault systems in the world. According to a new study, the stress in the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults in Southern California has reached maximum levels for at least the last thousand years.
The results of the work by specialists from the University of Hawaii at Manoa have been published in the scientific journal Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.
According to the lead author of the study, Lilian Burkhardt, the fault system is in a "critically stressed state." Scientists reached this conclusion after modeling earthquakes that have occurred in the region over the past thousand years.
"Our results show that the stress level at several sections of the faults is currently at or even exceeds the highest values observed in the last millennium," the researcher noted.
Experts suggest that energy continues to accumulate, as it has been about 160 years since the last major earthquake in this area.
Particular attention was paid to the Cajon Pass in Southern California. According to calculations, this area could either hinder the simultaneous rupture of two major faults or, conversely, facilitate it.
If a single earthquake occurs in the future affecting both the San Andreas and San Jacinto systems simultaneously, the consequences could be significantly more severe than usual. Populated areas, including Los Angeles, San Bernardino, Riverside, and the Coachella Valley, would be at risk.
For the study, scientists used a computer model based on earthquake data from the last 1,000 years. The historical picture was reconstructed using radiocarbon dating of geological deposits and analysis of tree rings.
At the same time, researchers emphasize that the work does not allow for predicting the exact date of the next major earthquake.
"We cannot say exactly when an earthquake will occur. However, such models help us better understand possible scenarios and prepare for them in advance," Burkhardt explained.
Scientists believe that the results of the study will help refine the assessment of seismic risks, improve infrastructure planning, and enhance the readiness of emergency response services.
Experts also remind California residents of the need to prepare in advance for possible strong earthquakes. Such events can occur with little warning, and public preparedness can significantly reduce the number of casualties and the scale of destruction.
