For the last 300,000 years, humanity has been the most intelligent species on the planet, but now scientists have named the exact date when technology will surpass human intelligence. It is claimed that the wait is almost over, writes Focus.
Since the emergence of Homo sapiens, humans have been considered the most intelligent beings on the planet for 300,000 years. However, now, due to the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), this may not last long. Many scientists now believe that the moment when AI first surpasses humanity is no longer a question of "if," but "when." Moreover, many experts believe this will happen very soon, writes the Daily Mail.
In a new report by the AIMultiple research group, scientists combined forecasts from 8,590 scientists and entrepreneurs to determine when the singularity will occur – the moment when AI surpasses humans. The results of the study show that this moment is approaching with every leap in the capabilities of artificial intelligence.
In the mid-2010s, scientists generally believed that AI would not surpass human intelligence before 2060. Today, some experts think that the singularity could happen in just three months.
What is Singularity?
In mathematics, singularity is the moment when matter becomes so dense that the laws of physics cease to apply. However, thanks to science fiction writer Vernor Vinge and futurist Ray Kurzweil, it has taken on a completely different meaning.
Today, singularity usually refers to the moment when technological progress begins to accelerate, going far beyond humanity's ability to control it. It is often understood as the moment when AI becomes smarter than all of humanity combined.
According to AIMultiple's chief analyst Jem Dilmegani, singularity is a hypothetical event expected to lead to rapid development of machine intelligence. Achieving singularity will require a system that combines human-level thinking with superhuman speed and readily accessible, almost perfect memory. It is believed that singularity will also lead to the emergence of machine consciousness; however, consciousness is not clearly defined, and therefore scientists cannot speak about it precisely.
When Will Singularity Occur?
Although most experts agree that singularity will inevitably occur, opinions on the timing of its arrival vary widely. The most radical prediction comes from Dario Amodei, CEO and founder of leading AI company Anthropic. He believes that singularity could occur as early as 2026.
The expert claims that by that time, AI will likely be smarter than a Nobel Prize laureate in most fields and will be able to perceive information and take actions approximately 10-100 times faster than human speed.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, while creating ChatGPT, stated that superintelligence could emerge in just a few thousand days. This means that the onset of singularity could happen at any time starting around 2027.
How Accurate Are the Predictions?
Experts note that the capabilities of leading AI models roughly double every seven months. If this exponential growth begins to accelerate, it could trigger a chain reaction leading to a sudden explosion of intelligence.
As a result, some experts unanimously believe that singularity could occur incredibly quickly if the right conditions arise. However, experts agree that it will take many more years before singularity occurs.
Excessive optimism regarding AI is not new, and countless exaggerated predictions have proven to be incorrect time and again. For example, Geoffrey Hinton, the so-called "godfather of AI," predicted that by 2021, hospitals would not need radiologists as they would be replaced by AI.
According to Dilmegani, the current capabilities of AI are still far from those of the human mind.
When Will Singularity Occur?
In a new study, Dilmegani and colleagues combined surveys covering 8,590 AI experts. This showed that while predictions have significantly approached reality since the launch of ChatGPT, most experts believe that singularity will likely occur in about 20 years.
Experts also believe that for singularity to occur, AI must first reach a state known as artificial general intelligence (AGI), possessing human-like capabilities.
Although the results of some studies vary, the general consensus is that this will happen around 2040. In one survey, scientists estimated the probability of singularity occurring two years after AGI at 10% and the probability of it happening within the next 30 years at 75%.
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