Moscow Goes to Courts and Organizations: The Satversme Protection Bureau Warns of a New Phase of Hybrid Warfare 0 6

According to the agency's assessment, with the continuation of the war against Ukraine and the Russian regime's perception of the conflict with the West as existential, the intensity of hybrid activities is likely to increase in the coming years.

Considering that open military confrontation with NATO carries high risks, it is probable that covert hybrid operations — sabotage, cyberattacks, information campaigns, and broader integration of artificial intelligence into influence campaigns — will continue to dominate. As Western countries gradually diversify their energy supply and reduce dependence on Russia, Moscow is likely to increasingly employ sanction evasion schemes, intermediary countries, and cooperation with authoritarian partners, the Satversme Protection Bureau (SPB) believes.

Moscow perceives the war with Ukraine as a broader conflict between Russia and the West, taking into account the military, financial, and other support for Ukraine from Western countries. By using various hybrid tools against the West, Russia aims to exacerbate existing divisions and create new ones both internationally and within states, as well as to foster war fatigue. Russia hopes to achieve a critical mass that would lead the West to reduce or even halt military assistance to Ukraine and exert political pressure on it to reach an agreement with Russia, the report states.

Russia is constantly searching for vulnerabilities in the security systems of Western countries that can be exploited in the future, emphasizes the SPB. In 2025, Russia continued to deploy sabotage activities primarily targeting infrastructure involved in providing military support to Ukraine. In the Baltic Sea region, there are ongoing instances of GPS signal jamming and spoofing. This is attributed to Russia's protective measures against drone attacks, the desire to conceal the activities of its "shadow fleet," and the creation of additional jamming effects for air and maritime traffic of NATO countries, the bureau notes.

Last year, there were more intense violations of airspace, as well as an increase in the appearance of unidentified drones, including near critical and military facilities of NATO countries. Airport disruptions caused by drone flights are used by Russia in its information campaign to demonstrate the vulnerability of European states — for example, their inability to control their airspace.

At the same time, Russia closely monitors the West's response to various security incidents, including drone flights over airports and sabotage against critical infrastructure, regardless of whether Moscow bears direct responsibility for a specific incident.

Since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia has been continuously adapting existing and developing new hybrid tools for its imagined struggle against the West. One of the increasingly utilized tools is the application of legal mechanisms on the international stage, according to the SPB.

According to the bureau's information, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has acknowledged domestically that it is necessary to act against the West in international organizations and courts, as a "legal war" is taking place between the parties. In the long term, Moscow plans to use legal mechanisms as a hybrid tool to dismantle the rules-based world order and achieve recognition of Russia as a great power.

Russia primarily uses legal tools to reference international norms that it claims Western countries violate on various platforms, such as international organizations. In propaganda messages, particular attention is paid to the alleged "double standards" of the West, while Russia positions itself as a constructive participant adhering to international norms.

Russia pays special attention to the UN. According to the SPB, Moscow believes that within this international organization, it can achieve favorable short-term solutions and long-term geopolitical changes.

Currently, one of Russia's priorities is to legitimize its aggression against Ukraine and achieve at least a neutral stance from other UN member countries. Although Russia's aggression has so far been condemned by the overwhelming majority of countries within the UN, this trend is beginning to change, and Russia is strengthening its positions.

Russia's influence in the UN is ensured by its special status — the right to veto in the UN Security Council, which is the most influential body of the organization and determines international sanctions policy. Russia uses this status to achieve neutrality or even favorable attitudes from other countries on issues that are significant to it.

The SPB is one of the three institutions of state security in Latvia, responsible for intelligence and counterintelligence, protection of classified information, monitoring critical infrastructure of information and communication technologies, as well as organizing and controlling the exchange of classified information with international organizations.