The Saeima is once again in turmoil: the discussion on the "most important issue" of the political agenda — Latvia's withdrawal from the Istanbul Convention — will continue. But how important is this to the average Latvian?
Everyone who follows the twists and turns of Latvian politics understands that the "convention question" hardly concerns either those who initiated this story of denunciation or those who are ready to go to great lengths to prevent its denunciation, frightening people with the end of the world. Each political force in the Saeima is trying to extract maximum political benefit from this, to put it mildly, secondary issue. Judge for yourself.
The "Greens and Farmers", by supporting the opposition on the issue of withdrawing from the convention, are trying to return to their "ideological roots" and thus retain their voters, rehabilitating themselves in their eyes for having voted for the ratification of the convention (contrary to pre-election promises) and for having "sat silently" in the same boat with their ideological opponents - the "progressives".
The "Progressives" must be quietly delighted with what is happening — they have the opportunity to show their voters again how they protect them. And these voters are young supporters of leftist ideology and representatives of the LGBT community. Moreover, the story with the convention allows the "progressives" to distract their own electorate from the obvious fact - the "progressives", being social democrats (even if only on paper), have not submitted a single socially significant amendment to the 2026 budget. Neither on pensions and benefits, nor on support for the poor and low-income, nor on tax reductions… Where are all the social democratic initiatives?
In principle, the fuss around the convention suits "New Unity" - in the shadow of this scandal, unpopular measures can be adopted and, at the same time, decisions that the people are actually waiting for can be avoided — for example, on reducing government management and administrative expenses, on cutting salaries and bonuses in government...
As for the opposition, this whole "Istanbul story" is a gift from fate. They can solve several tactical tasks at once: attempt to split the ruling coalition by exposing contradictions in power, demonstrate their strength and, at the same time, the weakness of their opponents, and test the possibility of cooperation among all right-wing opposition in case the current government collapses and a new one needs to be formed.
When There Is No Money...
It is probably unnecessary to say that, in any case, the fate of the convention will not improve (and, in fact, will not worsen) the current economic situation in the country. This is, to some extent, even a fake news story — considering the challenges and problems facing the country. To avoid being unfounded, let’s outline these problems.
First. The still too weak economic growth does not allow the state to earn more and thus there is no opportunity to invest funds in those areas that are in dire need of additional financing — namely, social services and, of course, healthcare. The need to sharply increase defense allocations (at least up to 4.6% of GDP) has led not to an increase but to a decrease in funding for other sectors in the country.
Second. The reality turned out to be even more pessimistic than all the most pessimistic forecasts — the national debt may reach 55% of GDP as early as next year! Initially, experts predicted such a large debt by 2028 or even 2029. The rapid growth of national debt means that every year, more taxpayer money will have to be spent on servicing the debt. Next year, over 600 million euros will be allocated for this purpose.
Third. The government has failed to find new sources of funding for the project of the century — Rail Baltica. The opposition pointed out that expenses for this project are not even included in the 2026 budget. To date, the Saeima has not received a law that would determine the procedures and responsibilities for implementing the project of the century. Although such a law was promised to the Prime Minister by the Ministry of Transport over a year ago...
Fourth. There is not enough money in the treasury even considering that the government decided to take almost all profits from state enterprises. They still have to take out loans to finance the main priorities.
Fifth. The authorities have not progressed to concrete actions regarding the listing of state and municipal enterprises on the stock exchange over the past three years. No, this is not about the sale of strategic enterprises — that dangerous idea has already been blocked. It is about the issuance of shares of individual economically attractive state and Riga municipal enterprises. It is obvious that this year the national airline airBaltic will not go public. The most the ruling party has managed so far is to grant the Riga City Council the right to issue its own bonds.
Sixth. No real reform in public administration has taken place. The authorities only "threaten" to conduct an audit next year and then try to somehow reform public administration based on its results. But it is clear that this will already be the responsibility of the next Saeima and government.
Of course, this is far from a complete list of problems and challenges facing the country. And we have not yet touched upon the topic of security challenges — it is not enough just to "shower" defense with money; it is necessary for these funds to be used effectively and truly enhance the safety of residents and the country as a whole.
