U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary for Europe and Eurasia Christopher Smith warned that after the war in Ukraine ends, Russia is likely to regroup its forces on NATO's eastern flank, creating a threat of increased military pressure from Moscow on the Baltic states in the coming years.
Speaking before American lawmakers, Smith noted on Tuesday that while Russia is currently directing "90% of its combat capabilities" against Ukraine, Moscow will ultimately seek to change the balance of power and look for opportunities to demonstrate its strength, as well as create problems for NATO.
"This is particularly relevant for the Baltic region," Smith acknowledged at a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee meeting dedicated to the security threats facing Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania.
The subcommittee's chairman on European affairs, Republican Kitt Self, pointed out that Russia is already rebuilding its military potential while continuing the war against Ukraine. "When this war ends, there is a real risk that Russia will be able to position its battle-hardened troops at the borders of the Baltic states," Self warned. "History shows that the end of the conflict in Ukraine will not diminish the threat from Russia. Instead, Moscow may simply redirect it elsewhere."
Smith noted that the threats are already manifesting in Russia's cyberattacks, sabotage operations, and the use of hybrid tactics against the Baltic region. "We should expect Russia to change the deployment of its forces," added the deputy assistant secretary, indicating that Moscow is already using "hybrid operations against the Baltic states" to pressure NATO allies.
Lawmakers from both U.S. parties have repeatedly praised Latvia and its neighbors, calling them an example for other NATO allies. All three Baltic states are quickly moving toward meeting U.S. President Donald Trump's requirement to allocate 5% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to defense, Smith emphasized, noting that Latvia became the first NATO country to legally commit to achieving this goal.
However, several Democrats again questioned the deputy assistant secretary about reports that some arms shipments to the Baltic states are allegedly delayed due to the U.S. war against Iran.
Smith acknowledged that the delays pertain to "certain types of ammunition," but Washington remains committed to delivering the weapon systems purchased by the Baltic states. "We are working very actively to ensure that these deliveries resume as soon as possible," he emphasized.
Smith also noted that by February 2025, the Baltic states will have completely ceased importing Russian energy and now procure about 80% of the liquefied natural gas they use from the U.S. He also acknowledged that the Baltic states are limiting cooperation with China due to its support for Russia.
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