In Latvia, the share of counterfeit cigarettes has reached 12.9% of the market — this is more than two and a half times higher than the average figure in Europe. According to the KPMG study, the country ranks third among 38 European states in terms of the prevalence of counterfeit tobacco products.
Latvia has emerged as one of the European countries where the issue of counterfeit cigarettes is most pressing.
According to a new study by KPMG, in 2025, counterfeit products accounted for 12.9% of total cigarette consumption in the country. This corresponds to approximately 220 million cigarettes. In comparison, the average figure across 38 European countries is 4.9%.
Thus, the share of counterfeits in Latvia is more than two and a half times higher than the European average. In terms of the prevalence of counterfeit cigarettes, Latvia is surpassed only by France and the United Kingdom.
The study shows that counterfeiting is becoming an increasingly serious problem for the European tobacco market.
Overall, in the European Union, the volume of illegal cigarette consumption reached 41.8 billion pieces, accounting for 10.3% of the market. According to the authors of the study, this has resulted in EU countries missing out on approximately 16.7 billion euros in tax revenues.
The segment of counterfeit products is growing particularly rapidly. It now accounts for almost half of the entire illegal cigarette market in the European Union. Over the past year, the volume of counterfeit consumption has increased by more than 20%.
The authors of the study link the growth of the illegal market in several countries to the rapid increase in excise taxes and prices for legal products. France is often cited as an example, where the share of the illegal market has reached a record 41.4%. After cigarette prices rose to 11–12 euros per pack, many smokers began switching to cheaper black market products.
For ordinary consumers, this means not only a loss of tax revenues for the government. Counterfeit cigarettes are produced outside of official quality control, and their composition is often unknown.
At the same time, there are also contrasting examples in Europe. For instance, Poland remains one of the countries with the lowest levels of illegal tobacco trade. The authors of the study attribute this to a stable excise policy and more predictable price changes.
Positive dynamics over the past year have also been demonstrated by Greece and Ukraine, where the volumes of the illegal market have decreased.
For the first time, the study also covered the market for nicotine pouches. Experts note that in countries where such products are banned or heavily restricted, the supply of illegal products is rapidly increasing.
The authors of the study specifically indicate that the work was commissioned by Philip Morris Products S.A., one of the largest tobacco product manufacturers in the world.
The study covers 38 European countries and analyzes the situation with both cigarettes and other nicotine products.
