“Old Moscow is for the rich, New Moscow and the region are for everyone else.”
108.1 million square meters - this is how much housing was commissioned in Russia in 2025. At first glance, the figure seems enormous, and there is indeed an increase compared to the previous year.
But if we look at the details, not everything is so rosy. There is growth, but it is microscopic - an increase of 0.4% compared to 2024. And this is not the merit of companies that build high-rise buildings. Almost 60% of the commissioned square meters are individual housing construction, that is, private houses. The construction of high-rise buildings has been declining for the second year and has already fallen below the level of 2022, when there were no mass preferential mortgage programs.
The decline in demand for housing over the past year has been predicted by everyone. And this is logical: where will the demand come from with such expensive mortgages?
- The situation with construction is primarily the result of changes in the mortgage market, where the number of loans issued decreased by 25.7% in 2025, - says Olga Borisova, associate professor of the Department of Corporate Finance and Corporate Governance at the Financial University.
Developers see that people do not want to take out mortgages, and demand for housing is low. So why build a lot? In this case, supply will exceed demand, and housing prices will begin to fall. This is not profitable for construction companies. That is why they are reducing construction volumes (although in theory they could choose not to).
At the same time, developers are cutting volumes due to projects that bring less profit and are heavily dependent on mortgages. What kind of houses are these? Of course, the cheapest: economy and comfort class. This is where the biggest decline is currently observed. Expensive business-class housing and especially "elite" housing is usually not purchased with a 30-year mortgage. And at the same time, it brings developers more profit per square meter.
But why are more private houses being built? As experts explain, individual housing construction is not so tied to banks. People often build their own homes with their own efforts and in stages - as money and opportunities arise. That is, there is no need to pay the entire amount for the future housing at once. And a loan is often taken only for some part of the work. For example, for completion - when most of the house is already ready.
- Economy class new buildings have virtually disappeared in major cities, - states Olga Borisova. - In Perm, their share is only 4%, in Rostov-on-Don and Kazan - 5% each, in St. Petersburg - 9%. And the share of business class in Moscow is already more than half of new buildings, in St. Petersburg and Kazan - more than a third. Developers have stopped chasing volumes and have focused on profitability, which allows them to recoup current projects.
For an average Russian with an average salary, this "focus on profitability" means little good: developers are becoming less interested in them.
As a vivid example, experts cite the capital.
- By the end of 2025, only 32 new residential complexes were put up for sale within the Moscow Ring Road - half as many as in 2024. The share of comfort class (this is improved economy, no "economical" new buildings are being constructed within the MKAD) in the offering has decreased to 14%, while in 2020 it was 40%. The share of business class in new construction has increased from 53% in 2020 to 66% in 2025. The premium class showed record growth - from 5% in 2020 to 19% in 2025, - said Marina Zhukova, head of the analytics and consulting department at CORE.XP Residential Real Estate.
- This means a strengthening of the trend: old Moscow is for the rich, New Moscow and the region are for everyone else. It is important to note that prices are currently rising not due to high demand, but due to rising costs: in particular, it is difficult to obtain cheap bank financing.
The head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin, recently gave hope - new buildings may become cheaper.
- Mortgages have decreased, and citizens' incomes have also fallen. Everyone who wanted to buy investment housing (for rental or to profit from price growth) has probably already bought it. And now it is necessary to sell off what has been built, - theorizes Shokhin.
The founder and honorary member of the Russian Guild of Realtors, Konstantin Apriliev, also believes that the new building market is "overheated".
- My deep conviction is that this is an extremely overvalued market, at least in million-plus cities. And in Moscow - first of all, - he reported.
According to him, the main demand now is collected by 10 - 15% of the most successful new residential complexes. The others have sales problems, and this situation will remain at least until autumn.
But how will all this affect the price of new apartments? Experts do not provide a definite answer - different options are possible, depending on the situation.
The main factor that all forecasts hinge on is the key rate of the Central Bank, which directly affects the availability of regular, non-preferential mortgages. Currently, the "key" is 15.5%, while the average mortgage rate is 20%. If the key rate goes down, mortgage rates will also fall. But at least until autumn - here experts mostly agree - no significant shifts are expected. This means that no serious changes for the real estate market are anticipated. Prices will gradually rise, unsold economy and comfort class will be sold off with discounts and installments, and new housing construction will be maximally tightened.
