The financial block leadership is trying to conceal "painful losses with embellished figures."
Russian authorities are trying to conceal the real size of the federal budget deficit, which spends every third ruble on war, and last year faced a significant shortfall in oil and gas revenues. This conclusion was reached by the Federal Intelligence Service of Germany (BND) following an analysis of budget data from last year.
According to BND estimates, the actual "hole" in the treasury reached 8.01 trillion rubles (88 billion euros) instead of the 5.65 trillion reported by the Ministry of Finance. Compared to 2024, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation could have increased by 130%, and the original plan of the Ministry of Finance (1.2 trillion rubles) could have been exceeded by almost 7 times.
"Intelligence data indicates that the federal budget deficit for 2025 was 41.8% higher than officially reported, amounting to 3.7% (instead of 2.6% in the Ministry of Finance report — TMT)," BND writes. Russia is trying to hide "painful losses with embellished figures," while almost all sectors of the economy are showing declines, and the reliability of state statistics is deteriorating, the German intelligence release states.
The "creative accounting" from the Ministry of Finance involves the apparent transfer of part of the federal budget deficit to other state budgets, explains Janis Kluge, an expert at the German Institute for International Security Affairs.
This refers to the budgets of regions and extra-budgetary funds — the Social Fund (formerly the Pension Fund) and the Mandatory Health Insurance Fund. Their deficits have surged to record levels — 1.5 trillion rubles in regions and 1.2 trillion rubles in the Social Fund, points out economist Viktor Tunev. For example, the Social Fund received 2.2 trillion rubles less in transfers from the federal treasury, he explains.
The total deficit of the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation reached a record 8.3 trillion rubles, Tunev reminds. To patch this "hole," the Ministry of Finance borrowed 7 trillion rubles on the government debt market and took another 2 trillion from the National Wealth Fund — this allowed covering the deficit and making interest payments on the debt, the expert indicates.
The 2026 budget was drafted by the government with a deficit of 3.8 trillion rubles, but by the end of February, the "hole" had reached 3.2 trillion, according to estimates from Alfa-Bank. Oil and gas revenues, after falling by a quarter last year, have decreased nearly by half again, averaging about 400 billion rubles per month in January–February.
However, the current context of high oil prices gives hope for replenishing the flow of raw material revenues to the budget, notes the chief economist of Alfa-Bank, Natalia Orlova: the price of Urals crude, which had fallen to $40 per barrel, has jumped to $70 due to the war in Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, paralyzing oil trade in the Middle East.
With an average price of Urals at $50-60, oil and gas revenues in March could increase to 800-900 billion rubles, which is approximately double the levels at the beginning of the year, forecasts Alfa-Bank.
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