Brent oil price falls below psychological level for the first time in six months: what about gas stations in Latvia? 0 7

The price of oil is primarily influenced by expectations of a significant oversupply in 2026.

An additional factor has been the revival of hopes for an agreement to end Russia's war against Ukraine, which has weakened the long-standing geopolitical premium in oil prices.

According to analyst Humayun Falakshahi from Kpler, it is not so much about the volumes of crude oil (Russia is still actively exporting it) as it is about the reduction of attacks on infrastructure and the increase in the export of petroleum products, particularly diesel, which will put pressure on refining margins.

On the other hand, markets are weighing the possible consequences of increased pressure from the U.S. on Venezuela.

Falakshahi said in a comment to Reuters that there is so much oil on the market right now that even a sharp reduction in exports from one producer, such as Venezuela, will not lead to aggressive price increases.

At the same time, potential political changes in Venezuela could only strengthen bearish sentiment in the medium term. Falakshahi reminded that the country has the largest oil reserves in the world – even larger than those of Saudi Arabia. In the event of a regime change, lifting of sanctions, and the return of Western companies, Venezuela could increase its production by 200,000 – 300,000 barrels per day within a year, and over four to five years – by more than 1 million barrels per day, partially compensating for production losses in other regions.

However, overall, Kpler believes that the potential for further price declines is limited. The company's forecast for 2026 is in the range of $60-65 per barrel.

In comparison, Goldman Sachs predicts that due to the large supply, oil could drop to $50 in 2026. According to its estimates, by next year, oil supply will consistently outpace demand, with an average surplus of 1.8 million barrels per day, which will lead to an increase in global stocks of nearly 800 million barrels by the end of 2026.