Global grain production in the 2025/26 agricultural year may exceed 3 billion tons for the first time, reaching 3 billion 003 million tons, according to FAO (Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations) materials.
"The upward revision of wheat production estimates is due to improved harvest prospects, primarily in Argentina, where a record harvest is expected. Additionally, forecasts for wheat production in the EU and the US have also been revised upward," the documents state.
The forecast for the collection of feed grains, primarily barley, has been increased to a lesser extent.
As for rice, it may reach a record harvest of 558.8 million tons, which is 1.6% more than the previous year. The main volume of growth is expected to come from Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia. They will more than compensate for the production decline in Madagascar, Nepal, Pakistan, Thailand, and the US, the materials note.
Reporting on the completion of the planting campaign in the Northern Hemisphere for the 2026 harvest, FAO noted that in the US, only 45% of winter wheat crops are rated as good or excellent, which is 10 percentage points lower than a year ago. This is due to ongoing drought in some areas.
"In the EU, the planting campaign continues against a backdrop of generally favorable weather conditions, although a lack of rainfall in some regions of Italy raises some concerns about the condition of wheat crops," the materials state. "Predominantly favorable weather conditions also prevailed in the main winter wheat production areas in Russia, where the planting campaign was completed by November."
In India, against a backdrop of favorable price conditions and government support measures, planted areas may exceed last year's record levels, while in Pakistan, they may also be above the average levels of previous periods.
Global grain trade in the 2025/26 season is expected to reach 500.6 million tons, which is 3.3% higher than last season's level.
