Turkey Will Secure Gas from the Black Sea 0 28

Turkey will be able to meet more than half of its gas needs by the end of 2028 through increasing its own production and boosting imports from the United States, which could take away from Russia and Iran their last major European market.

Washington is openly pressuring allies, including NATO member Turkey, to sever energy ties with Moscow and Tehran. At a meeting in the White House, U.S. President Donald Trump insisted that Turkish President Tayyip Erdoğan reduce energy purchases from Russia.

Diversification of supplies will strengthen Turkey's energy security and support its ambition to become a regional gas hub. According to analysts, Ankara plans to re-export imported liquefied natural gas and gas produced domestically to Europe, while directing blue fuel from Russia and Iran for domestic consumption.

"Turkey is signaling its readiness to take advantage of the surplus of LNG in the global market for its own interests," said Sohbet Karbuz from the Mediterranean Energy and Climate Organization.

Russia remains the largest gas supplier to Turkey; however, its market share has decreased over 20 years from 60% to 37%.

The expiration of long-term contracts between Russia and Turkey for the annual supply of 22 billion cubic meters of gas through the Blue Stream and TurkStream pipelines is approaching. The contract with Iran for 10 billion cubic meters expires in the middle of next year, while agreements with Azerbaijan for 9.5 billion cubic meters are valid until 2030 and 2033.

According to Karbuz, Turkey is likely to extend some of these contracts but will seek more flexible terms and reduced volumes to increase supply diversity.

At the same time, Ankara is actively developing alternative supply channels. The state-owned TPAO is increasing production at local gas fields, while other companies are expanding terminal capacities to receive LNG from the United States and Algeria.

According to Reuters' calculations, domestic production and imports of liquefied natural gas under contracts will grow from 15 billion cubic meters this year to over 26 billion cubic meters annually starting in 2028.