Moscow Creates a Pretext for Launching Strike Drones Against Ukraine from Belarus - ISW 0 16

Russia may use the territory of Belarus for new drone strikes against Ukraine. This conclusion was reached by the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) while analyzing recent statements from Belarusian and Russian officials.

The trigger was the statement by the Secretary of the Security Council of Belarus, Alexander Wolfovich, who claimed that in the past week, Belarusian forces allegedly recorded 116 attempts by Ukrainian drones to cross the country's border. He also asserted that some of the drones allegedly attempted to attack Belarusian border infrastructure.

According to ISW analysts, such statements could be used as a justification for future Russian "retaliatory" strikes against Ukraine from Belarusian territory.

Experts emphasize that the likelihood of a new ground invasion by the Belarusian army into Ukraine remains extremely low. ISW does not observe a concentration of Belarusian troops at the border sufficient for a large operation, and Russia lacks the necessary reserves to support such a scenario.

However, launching drones from Belarus would give Moscow an important advantage. In this case, Russian drones could more effectively attack the western and northwestern regions of Ukraine, including key supply routes for weapons and equipment from Poland. This primarily concerns the M-06 highway and supply railway lines.

Analysts note that Russia is already attacking western Ukraine from its own territory, but launching drones from Belarus would allow for the use of Shahed and Molniya drones with greater precision and effectiveness against moving targets.

Ukrainian authorities had previously reported a similar incident. According to them, in December 2025, a drone operator located in Belarus attacked a Ukrainian freight train near Korosten in the Zhytomyr region—about 50 kilometers from the Belarusian border.

In this context, Russia is simultaneously strengthening internal security measures. Ukrainian long-range drone strikes are increasingly impacting Russian airspace. The Russian Association of Aircraft Owners and Pilots reported that starting June 1, Russian authorities will prohibit civilian flights in a vast area around Moscow at altitudes up to 5,100 meters. The restrictions will affect the territory up to the border with Belarus and areas near Ukraine.

Russian military bloggers directly link these measures to the increasing Ukrainian drone attacks and problems with Russian air defense, which, according to them, is not always able to distinguish its aircraft from drones.

Additional concern has been raised regarding Kaliningrad. For the first time, the airport was temporarily closed due to drone threats, and local media reported the launch of a drone warning system.

At the same time, some Russian officials have begun to soften recent threats of "systematic strikes" on decision-making centers in Kyiv.

ISW analysts believe that the Kremlin is trying to balance between escalating rhetoric and real capabilities amid a protracted war, growing economic problems, and increasing Ukrainian strikes on the Russian rear.

The situation around Belarus shows that the war is increasingly extending beyond the front lines and affecting the entire security system of the region—including the Baltic states and the eastern flank of NATO.