Regime change in Iran is very likely.
An internal coup is possible.
Iran is closer to a regime change following the assassination of the country's leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Maris Andžāns, director of the Center for Geopolitical Studies and associate professor at the University of Stradiņš, in an interview with Latvian Radio.
According to him, one option is that a new supreme political and religious leader is chosen. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei left several possible successors. In this case, the regime would continue to exist as it has so far. “But I think this is almost impossible. Israel and the U.S. will try to kill the new leader as well, if one is chosen,” Andžāns believes.
Moreover, according to the foreign policy expert, an internal coup is possible, which could be carried out, for example, by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard or some other forces that could change the regime and “attempt to reform it from within.” In this case, a mass outpouring of people onto the streets and the seizure of government institutions is possible. The son of the last Shah of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, who resides in the U.S., may be involved in this process.
“Another option is, of course, a civil war in Iran. We have seen such an option in Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, and to some extent after foreign intervention. Iran is not a monolithic state; many different nationalities live there,” noted Andžāns.
In his opinion, it can now be said with a fair degree of confidence that there is a war going on in the Middle East.
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