"Even when Russian troops advance a few kilometers, they do so at enormous losses."
Wars are fought not only on battlefields but also in perceptions and narratives that influence political will and economic expectations. This is noted by retired U.S. Air Force General and air power expert Dave Deptula for Forbes.
"Putin understands this. His strategy now relies less on decisive success on the battlefield and more on convincing the world, particularly the United States, that Russia's victory is inevitable; that further support for Ukraine is futile; and that pragmatic Americans would be wiser to prepare for a favorable normalization than for a prolonged confrontation," he stated.
In particular, the head of the European Union's foreign policy, Josep Borrell, warned that "the greatest threat that Russia poses right now is that it is gaining more at the negotiating table than it has achieved on the battlefield."
The myth of Russia's strength is fading
"The seeming inevitability of Russia's victory is not a fact. It is merely a narrative. And when compared to the reality on the battlefield, this narrative crumbles. At the operational level, Ukraine is holding Russian ground forces on a front line of approximately 1,000 kilometers. It has neutralized Russia's effective use of the Black Sea and deprived it of air superiority over the territory controlled by Ukraine - a tremendous defeat for what was considered modern air power," Deptula reminded.
According to the expert, at the tactical level, Ukraine has a favorable loss ratio, ranging from 2.5:1 to 7:1, and in some battles, this ratio is even higher.
"Even when Russian troops advance a few kilometers, they do so at enormous losses. The casualty figures underscore two key realities: first, Russia is willing to pay an extraordinary price in human lives for minor territorial gains; second, time only favors Moscow if Ukraine's defense collapses faster than Russia's human resources and industrial base can be replenished," explained the retired U.S. Air Force general.
Deptula emphasized that it is not only about breakthroughs but also about endurance, industrial potential, and political will. In particular, Russia promises inevitability, yet on the front lines, there is "exhaustion without momentum, losses without advantage, and violence without resolution."
At the same time, according to the expert, Ukraine's will is beyond doubt, while the uncertain variable is the resolve of the West.
What he is fighting for
"Of course, Putin is fighting not just for territory. He is fighting for his political survival. By framing the invasion as existential for Russia, he has made it existential for himself. Putin has little political space to change course without reinterpreting the outcome as a success. The longer the war lasts, the more the legitimacy of his regime is called into question. This dynamic helps explain Russia's willingness to suffer extraordinary losses. Ending the war without tangible achievements risks exposing the enormous human and economic costs already incurred," the general believes.
Therefore, as Deptula noted, the world now sees not the profile of an inevitable victor but a regime that is sacrificing lives to buy time, hoping that Western fatigue or economic temptations will yield what Putin cannot achieve on the battlefield.
"Some argue that Putin's greatest advantage lies in narrative dominance - that by imposing a story of inevitability, Russia seeks to shape negotiations regardless of the reality on the battlefield. The narrative matters. But a narrative without power is propaganda," emphasized the author of the article.
The expert added that the Russian dictator bets on the idea that Russia can sustain costs longer than the West, but this assumption is flawed if the West decides to prove otherwise.
Russia is becoming weaker
"Russia's vulnerability is real. Its personnel potential is depleted. Its economy is becoming increasingly militarized and fragile. Sanctions have restricted access to technology and capital. And its strategy relies on sanctuary - the belief that its homeland and the infrastructure supporting the war remain largely insulated from significant consequences. Until the U.S. and European allies provide Ukraine with the means to truly challenge this sanctuary, Moscow can maintain the illusion of resilience," the general believes.
According to Deptula, how the war in Ukraine ends will affect global events far beyond Europe. If Russia's aggression is rewarded with final normalization of relations and profitable resumption of cooperation, the lesson for China will be clear: just endure sanctions, absorb losses, manipulate narratives, and the world will eventually adapt to your goals.
"If, however, aggression meets steadfast resistance, strategic defeat, and fails to achieve its objectives, this will strengthen the deterrence of future aggression. Militarily, Ukraine has already debunked the myth of Russia's inevitable victory. The unresolved question remains whether the United States and its allies will allow economic temptations and narrative pressures to replace the strategic clarity and values that are dear to all free people," the expert noted.
The author of the publication concluded that wars are fought on the battlefield, but they are also fought in narratives.
"Russia sells the narrative of inevitable victory and future profits. The facts tell a different story - of strain, exhaustion, and vulnerability. History will remember which version we chose to believe - and act upon it," he emphasized.
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