The burden of costs associated with the trade tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in 2025 almost entirely falls on the shoulders of Americans, a new study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy has shown.
This conclusion contradicts the claims made by Trump himself, who has repeatedly stated that the tariffs will be paid by foreign suppliers.
The introduction of tariffs has not led to an influx of foreign wealth into the U.S., notes one of the study's authors, Julian Hintz, a professor of economics at the University of Bielefeld.
By analyzing shipments worth $4 trillion from January 2024 to November 2025, experts concluded that foreign exporters absorbed only 4% of the additional costs, slightly lowering prices. The remaining 96% had to be paid by American consumers and importers.
Thus, instead of becoming a sort of tax for foreign producers, the tariffs have turned into a consumption charge in the U.S.
About $200 billion in new tariffs last year "were almost entirely paid by Americans," says Hintz. Over time, this is likely to lead to a rise in inflation in the U.S., which has so far remained moderate.
Economists at the Kiel Institute cite several possible reasons why exporters have not actively lowered prices for goods supplied to the U.S. In particular, they may have found buyers in other countries, or they believe that the final tariff rates will change and it is therefore prudent to keep prices at the current level.
The tariff rates on some goods are 50% or more, making their shipments unprofitable.
As for American importers, many of them have long-standing and established relationships with suppliers and have not yet been able to find replacements.
