Commenting on the export statistics published on Friday, Luminor's chief economist Lennu Uusküla noted that the prospects for the export of Estonian goods are not very optimistic, and Poland is becoming an increasingly serious competitor.
Goods exports decreased by 2.2% compared to last year. However, exports of Estonian-origin goods remained virtually unchanged from last year, increasing by 0.1%. At the same time, goods imports grew by 1.9% over the year.
According to Uusküla, the export of Estonian goods has been stagnant for the last three years, since the demand for Estonian products was high during the coronavirus pandemic due to disruptions in international goods flows. "Exports are hindered by both low demand in our main destination countries and the lack of significant adaptation and reorientation to new markets over these years. Meanwhile, the costs of Estonian enterprises have risen more than those of our main competitors. As a result, Estonian exports have hardly changed over the last three years," noted Uusküla.
Exports from Estonia are growing towards Denmark, Norway, Poland, and Lithuania. At the same time, exports to Finland, Sweden, and Latvia are stagnating. Over the year, exports of vehicles and textiles have increased. However, exports of paper, mineral products, and metals have decreased.
"The prospects for the export of Estonian goods are not very optimistic. Some growth can be expected if Finland and Sweden start building more, but even then, they may source components from Poland, which is much cheaper and, in the new geopolitical situation, logistically more advantageous. Spontaneous growth in exports is not to be expected. European competition policy has changed, and countries support their companies with high potential, which then gain better positions internationally. Additionally, Estonian companies have relatively invested little lately, and their ability to keep up with technologies is quite weak," added Uusküla.
