In the run-up to the joint World Cup of the USA, Canada, and Mexico, everyone is trying to predict the outcome of the tournament today. Based on the sports statistical database Opta, the Opta Analyst platform has prepared its traditional analysis.
The Opta supercomputer believes that the main contender for the World Cup title is the Spanish national team in the first tournament in history featuring 48 teams.
As noted in the study, Argentina arrives at the World Cup as the reigning champion: under the leadership of Lionel Messi, the 'albiceleste' won the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, thus becoming three-time world champions.
Among the six South American participants, another heavyweight-record holder stands out, the five-time world champion Brazil. The team, led by Italian Carlo Ancelotti, who has won the Champions League five times as a club coach (also a record), will attempt to break the 'golden drought' that has lasted since 2002.
The two-time world champion Uruguay will also participate in the tournament; however, analysts believe that among the South American teams, it is the rivals of the 'celeste' who have a higher chance of ultimate success.
A third of the participants—16 teams—represent Europe. Among them are the four-time world champion Germany, the two-time World Cup winner France, as well as England and Spain, who have each won the tournament once and are quite capable of doing so again. The four-time world champion Italy is the only one of the eight previous winners who failed to qualify for this World Cup.
According to Opta's data, a victory for the reigning European champion—Spain—would be the least unexpected outcome. The supercomputer conducted 25,000 simulations of possible tournament outcomes and bases its prediction on them.
Opta Predictions
• According to Opta, the main favorite of the World Cup is Spain, which wins in 16.1% of the 25,000 simulations conducted.
• Following them are France (13%), England (11.2%), and Argentina (10.4%)—each of these teams wins the tournament in more than 10% of the simulated scenarios.
• In 35.9% of simulations, the title goes to a team that has never been world champion. For example, Portugal, which ranks fifth among the favorites with a probability of 7%, can hope for this.
• The probability of winning the title above 5% is held, besides the already mentioned teams, only by Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%).
Probably, the main favorites are the Argentines because they won the last World Cup. But Portugal and Spain are also very strong; it will not be easy for anyone against them. And there is also Morocco, which may once again deliver a big surprise.
Spanish 'Partial Chances'
Here are a few more indicative details from Opta's predictions:
• Spain is the only team with a higher probability of reaching the quarter-finals than being eliminated earlier: this occurs in 52.1% of simulations.
• La Roja has a 39% chance of reaching the semi-finals, and in 25.6% of simulated scenarios, the team reaches the final.
• Spain has a 75.3% probability of winning its group (ahead of Uruguay, Saudi Arabia, and Cape Verde). Even if it does not take first place, in 98.5% of simulations, the team still ranks among the top 32, from where it has a 72.7% chance of advancing to the Round of 16.
As seen from the data already presented by the supercomputer, after 25,000 simulations, Opta came to the same conclusion that any football fan with a bit of knowledge would arrive at when asked, 'who will win the World Cup': the previous world champion wins most often.
According to the computer, the previous champion is likely to win again
If we sum the probability of Uruguay (1.7%), ranked 13th in the Opta rankings, with the figures of other former champions, then the seven teams that have already won the tournament collectively have a 64.1% chance of ultimate victory. The remaining 41 teams share the remaining 35.9%.
It is worth looking at those whom the supercomputer assigns minimal chances. According to Opta Analyst, 28 teams have a probability of winning the championship title of less than 1%.
Among them, Turkey has the highest chances (0.9%). At the very bottom of the list are five teams with less than one-tenth of a percent: the chances of the DR Congo, Qatar, Cape Verde, Haiti, and Curaçao are literally 0%.
Opta also places Canada in this group: it is ranked 24th and has a probability of ultimate victory of 0.5%. This is unexpectedly low, but the same as Austria, and higher than Sweden (0.4%) or the Czech Republic (0.3%).
The other two host countries, according to the forecast, have even less to be ashamed of. Although the USA (1.2%) and Mexico (1%) also have no serious grounds for high hopes, they are ranked 18th and 20th respectively and still make it into the top twenty.
Among the teams that are not among the clear favorites but are capable of a breakthrough, the supercomputer highlights the Netherlands, ranked eighth in the standings with a 3.6% chance of ultimate victory. They are followed by Norway (9th) — 3.5%, Belgium (10th) — 2.4%, Colombia (11th) — 2.1%, Morocco (12th), which placed fourth in the last World Cup — 1.9%, and Croatia (15th), which won silver and bronze in the last two World Cups — 1.6%.
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