The Bureau for the Protection of Satversme (BZS) stated that Russia's actions are becoming increasingly unpredictable, and the risk of dangerous miscalculations from the neighboring country is growing. This was prompted by drone incidents and a new information campaign from Moscow against the Baltic states.
The Bureau for the Protection of Satversme has warned of rising security risks in the region amid Russia's increasingly aggressive and unpredictable behavior.
Commenting on recent drone incidents in Latvia, threats to airspace, and statements from Russian intelligence regarding the Baltic states, the Bureau noted that Moscow is increasingly acting based on a distorted perception of threats.
According to the Latvian intelligence service, the Russian information campaign surrounding drones is part of a broader strategy of psychological pressure on the Baltic states and the West.
The Bureau believes that in recent years, Russia's attitude towards Western countries has become noticeably harsher and more aggressive. One of the reasons cited is the growing insularity of the Kremlin elite and the lack of critical opinions within Russia capable of challenging the authorities' decisions.
The intelligence service points out that Moscow increasingly evaluates the actions of other states through its own logic—assuming that other countries will behave as the Russian regime would.
Importantly, this distorted perception, according to the Bureau, increases the risk of dangerous mistakes and miscalculations. The agency warns that Russia is increasingly preparing to respond not to real but to imagined threats. As a result, its actions become less predictable, and the potential risks to Europe's security rise.
At the same time, the Bureau emphasizes that the likelihood of direct military aggression by Russia against Latvia in the short term is still assessed as low. However, the current information campaign is likely aimed at influencing the decisions of Latvia and other Western countries, as well as reducing support for Ukraine.
The intelligence service's statement came amid a series of alarms in Latgale due to possible drones and reports from the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service claiming that Ukraine is allegedly preparing attacks on Russia from the territory of the Baltic states.
Previously, Moscow claimed that Ukrainian military units were allegedly already stationed in Latvia. Latvian authorities categorically rejected these statements, calling them disinformation.
Amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and regular incidents with drones, the issue of airspace security and potential hybrid threats has become one of the central topics in the political agenda of the Baltic states.
