It is quite possible that on the morning of October 4, upon learning the election results, some ruling politicians will mentally return to those April days and... bite their elbows. But nothing can be changed now.
Missed the Chance for Salvation?
The guardians of Latvian politics in the corridors say that the "green farmers," having surrendered their positions regarding the loan for airBaltic, have missed almost their last opportunity to exit this disastrous government, thereby collapsing it.
The collapse of the government would allow the "green farmers" to boost their political rating ahead of the climax of the election campaign. There will be no more opportunities for the "green farmers" to destroy Silin’s government – just before Ligo, that is, in two months, the Saeima will go on a long vacation, and then the elections will come...
A Mutiny on the Ship
Let us recall that the saga surrounding airBaltic began two weeks ago. Initially, the question of providing the airline with a loan was discussed at a closed government meeting. And although the ministers from the Union of Greens and Farmers (UGF) did not vote against the allocation of the loan, they warned that their party members in the Saeima might not simply agree to support the loan of 30 million euros.
And so it happened – the "green farmers" staged yet another mutiny on the ship. After the Easter holidays, when it became clear that the UGF had "dug in their heels," the Prime Minister realized that she herself needed to actively engage in persuading the rebellious partners.
However, neither the extraordinary government meeting convened solely to discuss the situation at airBaltic nor the threat to seek help from the opposition helped – the "green farmers" put forward several conditions that they were not ready to vote for the loan without fulfilling. As it later turned out, one of the conditions was the dismissal of the Minister of Transport, Atis Shvinkis ("Progressives").
Opposition and Silin’s Desperation
Evika Silin indeed turned to the opposition for help, specifically to part of it – the National Alliance and the United List. The importance of the issue of issuing a loan for airBaltic is underscored by the fact that the presidential office staff joined the phone outreach to opposition politicians. As we all understand, the clerks did not suddenly decide to "become active" – they were carrying out a task from Edgars Rinkēvičs.
But the miracle did not happen – the nationalists stuck in the opposition were certainly not going to save the Prime Minister from "New Unity" and her government, let alone make an extremely unpopular decision among the people.
After this, the Prime Minister began to lose her nerves and stated that she was even ready to collapse the coalition just to achieve a positive vote in the Saeima. By collapsing the coalition, Silin meant fulfilling the "green farmers'" demand and removing Shvinkis from the post of Minister of Transport, which could provoke a demarche from the "progressives" in the form of leaving the government. And that would mean the end of the government.
The 'Green Farmers' Changed Their Minds Again. Why?
But ultimately, the government crisis did not happen. Early last Thursday morning, at an extraordinary coalition meeting, the Prime Minister managed to convince the "green farmers" to change their minds, and they voted the same day in the Saeima for the loan. So why did the "green farmers" refuse the plan to collapse the government at the last moment?
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The first reason – the leaders of the "green farmers" were afraid of becoming... the undertakers of the national airline. A refusal for the loan could paralyze airBaltic's operations with all the ensuing consequences. Flight cancellations, staff layoffs, huge tax shortfalls, and significant severance payments... This is clearly not what the "green farmers" would want to see before the elections.
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The second reason – Silin had already warned that if the "green farmers" forced her to fire Shvinkis, she would have to, for balance (or in retaliation – however you want to put it), fire one of the ministers from the Union of Greens and Farmers – it seems that it would be the Minister of Agriculture, Armands Krauze. His dismissal would occur under the pretext of a scandal involving support for wood processors. Such a development was clearly not acceptable to the "green farmers".
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The third reason – the "green farmers" did not have a ready model for the next government. Why collapse the current government if there is no project for a new ruling coalition, and there are already 5.5 months left until the elections...
In any case, such an inability to go all the way and keep their word could cost the "green farmers" seats in the next Saeima! The alarm bell had already rung in early April when it became clear that from December to March, the popularity of the "green farmers" had plummeted, and in March only 4.7 percent of respondents were ready to vote for the Union of Greens and Farmers! Only after the addition of undecided voters did the "green farmers" crawl over the five percent barrier...
Was There Any Benefit from the Demarche?
But let’s return to the issue of airBaltic. The leader of the "progressives," Andris Šuvajevs, accused the "green farmers" of simply "playing theater," as they ultimately voted for exactly the same draft resolution that was proposed to them by the Ministry of Transport two weeks ago.
There is no doubt – there is a high probability that if the question of the loan had arisen after the elections or, for example, a year or two before the elections, the "green farmers" would have supported the loan without much objection. But willingly or unwillingly, such a demarche by the "green farmers" brought certain benefits to society as a whole.
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First, the ruling party had to partially lift the veil of secrecy and inform Latvians about the real situation at airBaltic.
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Second, now both the Prime Minister and the Minister of Transport will have to closely monitor how the loan is spent and do everything to ensure that the money is returned to the State Treasury on time – by August 31 of this year.
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Third, the management of airBaltic will still have to step up and present a business plan by the end of May, which will include, as required by the president, the restructuring of the company.
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Fourth, it is unlikely that the government will risk providing the airline with another tranche before the elections – this time under the guise of preparing for the winter season.
...In any case, we see that this time the government boat has remained afloat. Well, the assessment of this government or, more precisely, the parties that make up this government will be given by voters on October 3. The non-repayment of the airBaltic loan by August 31 will have catastrophic consequences for the ruling forces.
