Which films will conquer the global box office this year?
The 2025 film season demonstrated the resilience of major franchises, with hits like "Zootopia 2" and "Avatar: Fire and Ash" confidently surpassing the $1 billion mark. Industry experts believe that 2026 will also have its own "big four," although the overall stability of cinematic universes, particularly Marvel (MCU), is currently in question.
Rating of box office success probability:
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"Avengers: Judgment Day" (Probability: 100%) Despite a colossal budget of $600 million, Robert Downey Jr.'s return in a new role makes this film the main event of the year. A billion dollars for this film is considered not just probable, but actually a guaranteed minimum. The success of "Judgment Day" will determine the further development strategy of the entire Marvel universe.
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"Spider-Man: New Day" (Probability: 85%) Tom Holland remains one of the most profitable actors of modern times. Although the film is announced as a less grand reboot following the events of "No Way Home," the stable popularity of the character allows for projections of box office earnings in the range of $1.1–1.3 billion.
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"Toy Story 5" (Probability: 75%) The franchise shows an interesting trend: the peak profitability occurred with the third installment ($1.57 billion adjusted for inflation), after which there was a slight decline. The main risk for the fifth part is the sense of closure in the story from previous films. However, the loyalty of the family audience will likely help the film reach a ten-figure box office.
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"The Mandalorian and Grogu" (Probability: 60%) Disney is bringing "Star Wars" back to theaters after an eight-year hiatus. While the first seasons of the series were extremely popular, the decline in interest for the latest season raises certain concerns. Box office success will depend on whether the trailer can turn the "good vibes" into a "must-see event."
A separate contender for a breakthrough is Christopher Nolan's project "Odyssey," which could become the fifth player on this list, given the high level of audience trust in the director after the triumph of "Oppenheimer."
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