How Many Billions Could Gazprom Lose 0 12

Ukrainian drones are massively attacking Gazprom's compressor stations in southern Russia. The problem here is not only the potential technical damage — these stations pump gas and ensure export supplies to Turkey and Europe. How much money is Gazprom at risk of losing?

Gazprom reports that over the past two weeks, the compressor stations "Russkaya," "Beregovaya," and "Kazachya" have been attacked by drones 12 times. So far, they have been able to repel the strikes, but what will Gazprom's losses be if the infrastructure is indeed damaged?

Exports to Europe via the Turkish Stream set a record last year: Gazprom was able to pump 18.06 billion cubic meters of gas. This, of course, is nothing compared to the 167 billion cubic meters of gas that Europe purchased in 2021, but still better than nothing.

Turkey purchased 21.2 billion cubic meters of gas from Gazprom for its needs in 2025: of this, 13.6 billion cubic meters passed through the Blue Stream, and 7.6 billion cubic meters through the Turkish Stream. This means that the goal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is to stop gas exports at 39.26 billion cubic meters.

But the fact of gas export itself is not what matters. What matters is how much can be earned from it. No one discloses the exact price, but it is possible to indirectly estimate the volume of potential losses.

For example, the head of the office of the Prime Minister of Hungary, Gergely Gulyás, revealed the approximate size of discounts on Russian gas at the end of January.

— If we were cut off from Russian gas today, we would have to buy gas at prices that would be more than 30% higher.

The gas price for Hungary is not fixed. The long-term contract signed in 2021 provides for a link to fuel prices at the TTF platform with a two-month time lag. By the end of 2025, the average gas price was $422 per 1,000 cubic meters. Accordingly, Hungarians paid an average of $295.

If the Hungarian government is not exaggerating the size of the discounts, then they are very lucky. In preparing the budget for 2026, the Ministry of Economic Development made a forecast for export revenue. It states that the average gas price for countries outside of China, that is, for Europe and Turkey, is $402 for every 1,000 cubic meters.

This means that Gazprom's revenue from supplies to Turkey and Europe for 2025 should have been nearly $15.8 billion. This is a significant amount of money. And even if the Hungarian minister was closer to the truth, and Gazprom was actually selling gas at $295 per 1,000 cubic meters, then the revenue would be about $11.6 billion.

Gas exports to the west have fallen significantly compared to pre-sanction times, but still allow Gazprom to earn considerable money.