Due to the conflict in the Middle East, prices for fertilizers and food may rise in Latvia 0 9

The Department of Market and Direct Support of the Ministry of Agriculture (MA) explained that Latvia is not directly dependent on fertilizer exports from the Persian Gulf countries; however, tensions in the global market, rising energy prices, and logistics disruptions may negatively affect the cost and availability of imported fertilizers.

Latvia imports mineral fertilizers from various countries in the European Union (EU), so it is currently impossible to predict serious disruptions in their availability. However, prolonged logistics disruptions in global markets may affect price dynamics in Europe. In the case of a prolonged conflict, its impact on global markets and supply chains will only intensify, creating increasingly significant disruptions, the MA noted.

Although Latvia does not generally import significant volumes of fertilizers directly from the Persian Gulf countries, except for potash fertilizers from Jordan, the global fertilizer market is tightly integrated, and the war in the Middle East could significantly affect the availability and price of mineral fertilizers, the ministry emphasized. They added that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and military actions in the region have created serious risks for transportation and threats to the global supply of fertilizers.

An additional risk is associated with the fact that the Persian Gulf countries play an important role in the global phosphate supply chain. A reduction in supply from these countries means increasing pressure on alternative suppliers, including Morocco, which is already the largest supplier of phosphate fertilizers to Latvia, the ministry emphasized.

The MA explained that the structure of mineral fertilizer imports to Latvia in 2025 shows a clear dependence on individual EU countries and third countries that are global leaders in fertilizer production, such as Morocco.

In 2025, nitrogen fertilizers were mostly imported from Lithuania — 35% of the total volume of nitrogen fertilizer imports. This was followed by Uzbekistan — 14%, the Netherlands and Belgium — 13% each, and Finland and Poland — 7% each.

Phosphate fertilizers last year were mainly imported to Latvia from Morocco — 81% of the total volume of phosphate fertilizer imports, while 16% came from Lithuania and 2% from Poland.

Potash fertilizers were mostly supplied from Germany — 33% of the total import volume, followed by Jordan — 24%, Belgium — 19%, and Uzbekistan — 9%.

Complex fertilizers were mainly imported from Morocco — 30% of the total volume, followed by Lithuania — 29%, Kazakhstan — 14%, and Finland — 10%.

Thus, the main partners of Latvia for fertilizer imports in 2025 were Lithuania, Morocco, Germany, Belgium, Finland, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and particularly in the segment of potash fertilizers, Jordan, which occupies a stable position in the structure of potash fertilizer imports to Latvia.

The head of the agricultural department and a board member of the agricultural cooperative "Latraps," Girts Ozols, told the LETA agency that the fertilizer producers that "Latraps" collaborates with are mainly located in Europe, so land routes or routes through the Baltic Sea are predominantly used for supplies.

Ozols noted that mineral fertilizers are currently available on the market, and a significant number of farmers secured them for the first spring works during the winter months.

At the same time, due to rising tensions in international markets, the price of fertilizers has increased, which could potentially affect the situation during the season. However, it is still too early to say whether this will reflect on the market and to what extent — a clearer picture will likely emerge in the coming month, Ozols said.

He noted that the current geopolitical situation has created problems for logistics and supply chains while significantly increasing demand. These factors influence market prices, which, in turn, affects fuel prices in both wholesale and retail.

The deputy chair of the board of the "Zemnieku saeima" association, Maira Dzelzkaleja-Burmistre, told the LETA agency that the conflict in the Middle East will directly impact the market. The production of mineral fertilizers is a very energy-intensive process that consumes a large amount of natural gas. Accordingly, the more expensive the gas, the more expensive the fertilizers, and the higher the production costs of food. However, the rising gas prices are not the only factor affecting food production costs.

Dzelzkaleja-Burmistre noted that the conflict has also caused a sharp rise in oil prices, and there is already a rapid increase in diesel fuel prices. This will negatively affect the production costs of food, as regardless of the price, fuel will still need to be purchased — fields need to be cultivated, seeds sown, crops harvested, and animal feed prepared, and each of these processes requires diesel fuel. The harvested crops must first be delivered to processing plants and then to consumers. Transportation costs are also rising, which will ultimately reflect on the final price.

She reported that some types of fertilizers that could be purchased for about 250 euros per ton last autumn have now risen to 450 euros per ton.

Dzelzkaleja-Burmistre also noted that additionally, "the EU seems to have decided to cripple production," as from January 1, 2026, an additional "climate tariff" will be calculated and possibly charged for each ton of products imported into the EU, which could increase the cost of fertilizers by about 150 euros per ton. At the same time, this regulation is currently being urgently reviewed at the European level, but no decisions have been made yet.

She emphasized that the rise in fertilizer prices in Latvia is not only related to this conflict but also to previously adopted EU rules under the green course, which artificially raise the cost of basic raw materials for European industry — steel, aluminum, mineral fertilizers, and others. This is not only a matter for Latvia but also for the competitiveness of all of Europe, and decisions must be made at the EU level.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the most important global transit corridors for energy resources and raw materials and is also significant for the fertilizer market, Dzelzkaleja-Burmistre emphasized. A significant portion of the world's export of raw materials for nitrogen fertilizers and sulfur is transported through this route, so supply disruptions have already contributed to rising prices and increased risks of availability.

She concluded that for Latvia, this will likely not mean a complete physical impossibility to purchase fertilizers — there will be offers in the market, but they will likely be at a price that most cannot afford.

Additional pressure may also arise through fuel and shipping — prices for oil, maritime transport, insurance, and transportation are rising, which again affects the final cost at which fertilizers and energy resources arrive in Europe and Latvia. Therefore, if shipping in the strait is halted, purchasing fertilizers in Latvia will become more expensive, riskier, and less predictable, Dzelzkaleja-Burmistre noted.

She also pointed out that farms are increasingly postponing purchases, reducing fertilizer application rates, or choosing a more cautious fertilization strategy if fertilizers become more expensive and supplies become less reliable. This, in turn, may lead to lower yields or reduced product quality.

Dzelzkaleja-Burmistre emphasized that farmers have almost no opportunity left to cut costs, as over the past two to three years, due to poor financial performance, fertilizer application rates have already been reduced by 20–30%. Further reductions in their use will significantly affect the volume and quality of the harvest. The rising costs of resources come at a time when, for farmers, considering the already difficult recent years for the industry, this becomes an additional burden and may reflect on food prices.

As previously reported by LETA, following the attack by Israel and the USA on Iran, which began on February 28, and Iran's retaliatory strikes on the Persian Gulf countries, as well as shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices have sharply increased.