The industry of the republic is again working for storage.
The Belarusian economy started the year with a decline – in January, GDP at comparable prices decreased by 1.2% compared to January 2025, reports Belstat. At the same time, Alexander Lukashenko announced a slowdown in the growth of salaries for Belarusians.
The results of January spoil the plans of officials, who forecast that in 2026 the economy will grow by 2.8%.
Industry is Declining, While Warehouses are Filling Up
Andrei Makhovsky, author and host of the "Optimum" program on the "Belarusians and the Market" channel, notes in a conversation with "Belsat" that the economy fell in the very first month of the year mainly due to industry, where production began to decline last year. Indeed, the decline in this sector amounted to 3.4% compared to January 2025.
"The decline in industry would have been even greater if it weren't for the cold weather, as more electricity and heat had to be used. In manufacturing, the decline was 7.5%. That is really a lot.
Even in the mining industry, which saw a slight growth at the end of the year, there is a decline. This means that things are not going well with potash fertilizers, despite the lifting of U.S. sanctions. The production of potash fertilizers has clearly decreased, as this is the main component of the mining industry," says Andrei Makhovsky.
The interlocutor notes that the decline in industry was predicted by experts and is largely related to Russia.
"The same trends that were present at the end of the year are still in effect. That is, the Russian market is shrinking – there is nowhere to sell. I would also point out that at the same time as production volumes are decreasing, stocks in warehouses have still increased even more. They are now almost ninety percent of monthly production volumes. This is a historical record, at least as far as I can remember," notes Makhovsky.
Alexander Lukashenko also drew attention to this problem at a meeting with officials on February 17. According to him, warehouse stocks increased by 800 million rubles in January alone, reaching 12 billion rubles.
The editor-in-chief of the media "Plan B", Olga Loyko, tells "Belsat" that this is a lot, even more than during the COVID times.
"We have systemic, not temporary, problems with sales. We cannot say that at the beginning of the month there were long holidays in Russia, so we just didn’t deliver something and it is gradually on its way. It is not going anywhere. It has already been produced, salaries have been paid, raw materials have been paid for, utilities have been paid, costs have been incurred, but nothing has been sold. And if the product is not sold immediately, the question arises as to whether it will ever be sold," says Olga Loyko.
She recommends that officials think about why meeting the production plan turned out to be more important than the condition of enterprises, which led to the overcrowding of warehouses.
Even Where There is Growth, Not Everything is Good
Production in agriculture increased by 3.5% in January at comparable prices, but there are problems here as well. Lukashenko also acknowledged them. Firstly, livestock deaths continue, and secondly, agricultural enterprises are in huge debt.
"Yes, we are earning quite well, but government support for compensation of losses amounted to 2.1 billion Belarusian rubles," said Lukashenko, commenting on the situation from last year.
"That is, growth in agriculture is happening because it is simply being pumped with money," emphasizes Andrei Makhovsky.
Also, in January, there was an increase in retail turnover – 1.2%. This is the result of real incomes of the population still growing, notes the interlocutor.
At the same time, people visited cafes and restaurants less – the turnover in public catering decreased by 3.1%. This may be related to the cold weather – people simply did not go out unnecessarily.
"This is just one month. I wouldn’t make far-reaching conclusions that this is related, for example, to a decrease in incomes. It may indeed be related to the cold weather. Although in Russia – and we are following Russia, just a little behind – there was a record closure of bars and restaurants in Moscow in December. There, everyone is definitely talking about it being a sign of the impending crisis. When people earn less, they go to restaurants and bars less," says Andrei Makhovsky.
No Salary Growth?
In Makhovsky's opinion, the Belarusian economy is facing hard times, and the decline in January is just the beginning.
"We are completely dependent on the Russian economy, and a crisis is just beginning in the Russian economy. This is a common consensus among both independent economists and pro-government economists," continues the expert.
Even Russian Minister of Economy Maxim Reshetnikov stated that the Russian economy is expected to decline until the end of 2026.
"Belarus will also be affected by Russian problems. What can Belarusians expect? Lukashenko gave a hint at today’s meeting. He said that somehow the incomes of Belarusians are growing too much while the entire economy is growing weakly – it is necessary to balance it so that incomes and the economy grow equally. Most likely, we should expect that, at least, we will not have the growth in incomes that we had in the last two years," says Andrei Makhovsky.
He notes that salaries have indeed been growing unreasonably.
"If your economy is growing by one percent, and salaries by ten, it is obvious that this is an unreasonable growth of salaries. This was due to the fact that there are not enough people to work in Belarus," emphasizes the interlocutor.
That is, salaries grew because employers needed to somehow attract and retain workers. But this cannot happen indefinitely.
"Therefore, there will be no salary growth, and there may even be a decrease. Because if your economy is declining, if you are producing less, selling less, then you have nowhere to get money for these salaries. On the one hand, this will certainly create some balance, but on the other hand, we remember that there are still not enough people in Belarus," says Andrei Makhovsky.
He fears that a situation in which people are not offered good salaries will lead to even greater economic migration from Belarus.
