The strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries also had virtually no impact.
In the outgoing year of 2025, the global oil market unexpectedly reacted weakly to geopolitical events, despite the abundance of "black swans." According to Reuters economic analyst Ron Bousso, this situation is becoming the new norm, although the world appears to be an increasingly dangerous place.
He stated that since January, events have been occurring worldwide that in previous years could have sent oil prices soaring, but in reality, their fluctuations have been relatively small, indicating a global shift.
First and foremost, the author recalled the return of Donald Trump to the presidency of the United States and his series of trade, political, and diplomatic initiatives. Next are Israel's strikes on Iranian targets, against which experts expected a full-scale war in the Middle East with a radical reduction in global oil supplies.
It was previously assumed that the very threat of Iran's involvement in the war and its closure of the Strait of Hormuz would drive oil prices to triple digits, but it turned out that the limit was a modest $78.85 per barrel of Brent. The strikes by Ukraine on Russian oil refineries also had virtually no impact.
Overall, oil price fluctuations in the range of $60–80 may indicate growing disbelief among market participants regarding the willingness of countries to intervene in oil trade.
The main reason for the calm, the analyst states, is the enormous reserves of oil and gas in the world. The maintenance or increase in production volumes by leading players, the entry of new players into the market, as well as the gradual lifting of OPEC+ restrictions have changed the picture that was observed not long ago. The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects that by 2026, the oil market will have a surplus of nearly four million barrels per day.
However, Howard Marks, founder of Oaktree Capital Management, reminded that calmness is always suspicious. Often, risk is perceived as low precisely when it is at its highest, and in the case of oil, the threat may materialize. For example, if OPEC+ cancels plans to increase production and the conflict between Iran and Israel flares up again, oil may become scarce. Nevertheless, the agency notes that mere news is no longer sufficient to move oil prices.
Earlier, analysts from the global commodity trader Trafigura suggested that the world oil market is heading for a super surplus in 2026, which will lead to a new price drop.
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