While Neighbors Run, Latvia Walks — Export Gap Grows 0 64

This is shown by the results of a study by the former head of the Department of Economics at the Stockholm School of Economics in Riga, Morten Hansen, and the chairman of the board of Industra Bank, Doctor of Economics Raivis Kakānis, dedicated to the development of Latvian exports over the past 15–30 years against the background of the indicators of two neighboring Baltic countries.

The researchers point to the total export revenues and growth in 2024 compared to the results of 2020. Namely, while in 2020 the volume of export revenues for Latvia and Estonia was very similar — €18.99 billion for Estonia and €18.31 billion for Latvia — in 2024, Estonia's figure had risen to €30.14 billion, while Latvia's was €25.98 billion. Lithuania, on the other hand, increased its export revenues from €36.41 billion to €58.11 billion. This means that the growth rate of Latvia's export revenues (including the effect of inflation) over the specified period was 42%, Estonia's was 59%, and Lithuania's was 60%.

In 2024, Latvia's imports exceeded its exports by more than €1 billion, while in Estonia, export revenues were higher than imports by almost €223 million, and in Lithuania by more than €4 billion. Lithuania does have a refining complex; however, the excuses that Latvia lacks a similar enterprise are unfounded — Estonia also does not have one. Moreover, none of the Baltic countries possess natural resources such as oil or natural gas.

In fact, in 2020, Latvia's lag behind Estonia in export revenues was about €0.6 billion, but over four years it grew to €4 billion, and the gap with Lithuania reached over €32 billion.

The researchers ask the question: Can Latvia, with its current approach, catch up with at least one of its neighboring countries and get closer to the average indicators of the European Union? The last five years, starting from 2020, have been a time of continuous restrictions and growing bureaucracy for the country, where any new rule was often justified by "external circumstances" or "global necessity." Thus, pandemic restrictions in Latvia turned out to be noticeably stricter than in Estonia or Lithuania — this was evident to anyone who crossed the border during that period.

A similar situation arose with the "forced" layoffs of unvaccinated workers, which resulted in significant losses for the labor market. The so-called "capital repair" of the financial system led to results that are hard to describe as anything other than miracles — especially when compared to how these processes unfolded, for example, in Lithuania. Then came restrictions on the use of natural resources, presented under noble and beautiful pretexts, along with tax and fee increases.