Russian President Vladimir Putin has a limited "window of opportunity" related to the current political situation in the USA. This opinion was expressed at the Riga StratCom Dialogue 2026 conference by American economist Roman Sheremeta, who suggested that after political changes in Washington, it may become more difficult for the Kremlin to implement its plans.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has about two and a half years left to make strategic decisions while Donald Trump is in the White House. This assessment was given in an interview with the LETA agency by Roman Sheremeta, a professor of economics at Case Western Reserve University.
According to the expert, the key factor could be the midterm elections in the United States, which have the potential to change the balance of power in Congress and increase pressure on the Trump administration.
"Right now, Putin has about two and a half years of opportunity left," Sheremeta believes.
He suggests that a change in the political balance in Washington could signal to the Kremlin that the favorable period for it is coming to an end.
"I think a change in the majority in Congress or the Senate, or in both chambers, could be a decisive moment when Putin realizes that his window of opportunity is closing," the professor stated.
In his opinion, in such a situation, the Russian leadership may begin to prepare the domestic audience for negotiations.
"He may start to shape a propaganda narrative that most of the goals of his special military operation have been achieved, and therefore it is time to begin negotiations," Sheremeta said.
The economist believes that an important factor for Putin will be understanding whether he can continue to rely on a favorable political environment in the United States.
If, after the elections, the positions of Trump's supporters weaken, this could change the Kremlin's calculations regarding the further development of the war and relations with the West.
At the same time, the professor does not rule out the opposite scenario. According to him, in the coming years, the Russian authorities may not only seek a path to negotiations but also escalate the conflict further.
"During these two and a half years, Putin could either start negotiations or take much more aggressive actions," he noted.
Sheremeta also considers the possibility of a new large-scale mobilization in Russia.
"Then it would no longer be a special military operation, but a full-scale war. In that case, they could mobilize millions of people," the professor stated.
He also pointed out that Ukraine has significantly increased the role of technology and drones in conducting military operations in recent years. In his opinion, this has become one of the factors that significantly raise the cost of further offensives for the Russian side.
Separately, the expert warned against underestimating the capabilities of the Russian economy.
"One should not deceive oneself with talks about the weakness of the Russian economy," he emphasized, noting that Russia has been able to significantly increase its military potential.
The assessments expressed at the conference are the expert's personal opinion. However, they reflect an increasingly widespread discussion among Western analysts about how potential political changes in the USA could affect the further course of the war in Ukraine and the Kremlin's strategy.
