China's vision for a long-term solution involves creating a new security architecture for Europe that takes into account Russia's security interests and reduces the role of the U.S. in ensuring Europe's security, according to the annual threat assessment and activity report for 2025 by the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (SVRB / MIDD), writes LETA.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping considers the return of the country to the global arena as a respected superpower, whose development and realization of national interests are not hindered by external obstacles, to be his main task and that of the Communist Party of China. According to Beijing, the current international order distances China from this goal — U.S. global dominance is increasing, and Europe is unable to create a counterbalance, notes the Latvian Military Intelligence and Security Service (SVRB).
China seeks to position itself as a "co-architect" of the world order, which also implies the right to resolve "unfinished issues" that it considers an integral part of the post-war world order. This also indicates China's claims to a sphere of influence covering at least part of East Asia.
In 2025, China and Russia continued to strengthen strategic cooperation and publicly demonstrate unity, signaling a similar vision of the international order. Although bilateral trade has generally decreased, it remains an important pillar of the Russian economy, allowing it to continue its aggression against Ukraine, states the SVRB report.
It notes that Beijing has shown interest in increasing energy resource imports from Russia, including resuming negotiations on a new gas pipeline. This indicates that China is likely to continue using Russia's partial economic isolation to its advantage — to achieve lower import prices and strengthen Russia's economic dependence on China.
China's position on the war in Ukraine has not changed, and active participation by Beijing in seeking a resolution to the conflict is unlikely to be expected, the report states.
Last year, Chinese state media paid increased attention to the Baltic Sea region, particularly in the context of NATO forces being stationed in the Baltic states, including Latvia. Media and experts from analytical centers echoed Russia's propaganda theses about the allegedly hostile policies of the Baltic states towards Russia and the threats posed by NATO.
Also last year, a new trend was recorded — attempts by Russia to establish new narratives about the Baltic states in the Chinese information space. In particular, attempts were made to link the "affiliation of the Baltic states to Russia's sphere of influence" with China's rights over Taiwan and to present the Baltic states as having a sinophobic stance. To date, these messages have not gained support in the information space controlled by Beijing, the report states.
The SVRB is a state security institution under the supervision of the Minister of Defense, responsible for military counterintelligence, intelligence, and other tasks as provided by the law on state security agencies and other regulations. Since 2002, the service has been headed by Indulis Kreikis.
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