The European Union may disappear by 2050, and state plans do not work due to one key mistake - politicians cannot clearly 'tell about the future.' This was stated by Andris Teikmanis, explaining how scenarios for the future are actually formed.
During the broadcast of the program "Kur tas suns aprakts?" on TV24, the Chairman of the Council of Higher Education of Latvia, Andris Teikmanis, explained in detail how strategic plans are created and why many of them remain only on paper.
According to him, the problem begins with an excessive number of documents: "Mr. Rostovskis [businessman, president of the Latvian Chamber of Commerce and Industry] once counted about 150 planning documents of various levels and scales, but one of the main problems is how we actually formulate these plans for the future."
Teikmanis noted that ten years ago he was attracted to the ideas of futurology, which he tried to combine with art and design. However, historically, scenario planning arose not from creative interest but from necessity: "Scenarios began to be developed due to the threat of nuclear war - it was necessary to understand what and how to do. That’s when the concept of 'scenario' emerged because it is always a story."
He emphasized that the key problem for modern politicians is the inability to clearly explain to people the image of the future: "If politicians or policymakers cannot tell about the future, then for people it remains vague... This is the first reason why neither plans nor goals are realized."
He specifically criticized national development plans: "These plans try to include everything because it is a chance to get European funding for every sector." Speaking about strategic planning, Teikmanis compared it to the art of storytelling: "When it comes to large state goals, what matters is how you tell this story." He added that when developing scenarios, negative options must also be considered, which are usually avoided: "We do not choose to talk about bad scenarios. But if we want a sustainable and safe society, people need to be explained what to do in the event of an ecological disaster or external invasion."
His statement about the future of Europe was the most resonant. In response to a question about the necessity of a scenario for the disintegration of the EU, he said: "The European Union will definitely disintegrate by 2050 or turn into something else."
In his opinion, the current model of the EU is unviable: "The current model of the European Union is the worst of all possible. It is unstable. Either Europe will become more federal and effective, or..."
