The very information buildup within the Russian Federation is an indicator that Moscow is preparing its citizens.
Russian dictator Vladimir Putin may be laying the groundwork for a new military conflict on the European continent. Aggression could occur within the next year, with the main factor being the distraction of the West to other hot spots around the world.
This was reported by the executive director of the Institute for Transformation of North Eurasia, Vladimir Gorbach.
According to the expert, favorable conditions are currently developing for the Kremlin due to the shifting priorities of world leaders. The main focus of international politics is on the Middle East.
"If we talk about the timing factor, the situation now appears more favorable for several reasons. In particular, the attention of both Donald Trump and a significant part of the world has shifted to the situation in the Persian Gulf and the confrontation with Iran. There is also a war of attrition taking place there, with resources and ammunition being expended," Gorbach emphasized.
Due to the community's focus on Iran, Moscow may be tempted to carry out provocations, expecting a lack of quick and adequate response. However, Gorbach notes that this step remains very risky for Russia itself and does not guarantee success.
The expert suggests that Russian aggression could occur at any time this year. However, particular attention should be paid to the fall, when military maneuvers can be most easily concealed.
"For example, in September, when such actions could be disguised as military exercises. Putin still has time to prepare such provocations. If there is already an information buildup happening now, it is likely to have further developments," the specialist notes.
What is the Kremlin's Plan
The scenario of an attack does not necessarily imply an immediate invasion of large forces 'here and now'. Rather, the Kremlin is likely to act gradually, destabilizing the situation through a series of smaller conflicts.
"This involves cascading actions or a series of provocations that will gradually shape the necessary informational background and public opinion within Russia regarding the 'necessity' of such steps. Therefore, this is not necessarily a 'here and now' scenario, but it is quite possible within the year," Gorbach added.
According to the expert, the very information buildup within the Russian Federation is an indicator that Moscow is preparing its citizens for the likelihood of a new conflict, creating the illusion of 'necessity' for aggressive actions against Europe.
Russia's War with NATO — Latest News
Recall that, according to Lithuanian intelligence, after the war against Ukraine, Russia may be preparing for a potential military confrontation with NATO. The annual threat assessment notes that Moscow is already expanding military units at the borders of NATO countries and plans to increase its army size by 30-50% compared to pre-war levels.
The report also discusses the modernization of Russian weaponry and the restoration of strategic reserves. Analysts specifically point to support from China, which is helping to develop the Russian military-industrial complex.
Additionally, the document mentions hybrid threats, particularly sabotage and incidents involving damage to underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea. In this regard, NATO has strengthened its presence in the region to protect strategic facilities.
Leave a comment