Iran developed a strategy for a new war in the Middle East after the conclusion of a 12-day conflict last June. At that time, the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian nuclear facilities. Tehran's new plan has been dubbed "Operation Madman." This was reported by The New York Times, citing six Iranian officials.
According to sources, Khamenei's orders were clear: take steps to ignite the flames of war in the Middle East if Iran were to be attacked again, and specifically if the Ayatollah himself were killed. He also designated four levels of succession for military commanders and officials to ensure there would be no power vacuum during the war.
The plan was to "make war with Iran extremely costly not only for Israel and the U.S., but also for Arab countries, their economies, tourism, global energy, transportation, and shipping."
"We know that America is extremely concerned about a regional war; it will affect its economy, and its allies will suffer. Our plan is to escalate the war and prolong its duration. This is the strongest blow we can deal to Trump, and we have no other choice," said senior advisor to the Iranian parliament speaker Mahdi Mohammadi in an audio analysis of the war published on his social media account.
The plan consisted of several stages. The first was strikes against Israel. The second was attacks on American military bases in Arab countries. The third was further escalation of the conflict with strikes against civilian targets in the region, including airports, hotels, and diplomatic institutions where Americans might be present.
All three stages were implemented by Iran within days of the war's onset.
"This is not a spontaneous reaction; this is not an impulsive decision. Iran's military plan has been developed and thought out for a long time to inflict as much damage as possible on America's allies in the region and, consequently, the United States," said Sina Azodi, an expert on Iranian military history at George Washington University.
In the weeks leading up to the hostilities, Iranian authorities warned neighboring countries about a possible escalation. Tehran made it clear that in the event of an attack, it would strike at U.S. interests throughout the region, even if it led to dragging the Middle East into a large-scale conflict.
At the same time, in Iraq, armed groups loyal to Iran began calling for volunteers to join the so-called "martyr squads" to "help their long-time patron wage jihad through attacks on American bases and other allies or U.S. interests in the region."
"Arab officials took these warnings seriously and repeatedly urged the Trump administration to refrain from attacking. By bombarding Gulf countries with missiles and drones, Iran found an effective way to exert economic pressure on Trump and other international leaders," the publication writes.
Missile and drone attacks targeted key transportation and energy hubs in the region. As a result, the operation of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the most important routes for oil transportation—was effectively blocked. Strikes were also carried out against the oil and gas infrastructure of Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Bahrain. After a drone attack on an energy facility in Qatar, the country announced an indefinite halt to liquefied natural gas production.
At the same time, Iranian allies in the region also became involved in the conflict. The Lebanese group Hezbollah began missile strikes against Israel. Analysts believe that Iran's influence over the actions of this organization has significantly increased since the previous conflict with Israel in 2024.
"It has become clear that Iran's involvement in Hezbollah's activities is much more extensive than we had assumed," said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.
Despite powerful strikes from the U.S. and Israel in the early days of the conflict, Iran retains significant military capability. According to estimates presented by U.S. officials in closed briefings to Congress, the country still possesses about half of its missile arsenal and a large number of drones.
According to the Pentagon, the first week of the war cost the U.S. approximately $6 billion. About $4 billion of that amount was spent on munitions, primarily interceptors to destroy Iranian missiles.
American military officials believe that the coming days will be crucial for assessing whether Iran can continue its mass missile strikes and maintain the intensity of the conflict.
Leave a comment