The conclusion about the winner is based on the rate of consumption of American missiles in Iran, as well as the rise in oil and gas prices: Putin is the "only obvious winner of the war with Iran," writes Bloomberg columnist Mark Champion.
"Russia has already become a clear beneficiary of President Donald Trump's decision to start a war with Iran. And this benefit will grow as the conflict drags on," Champion believes.
"A four-to-five-week operation will significantly deplete American missile stocks — both offensive and defensive — while simultaneously pushing up global oil and natural gas prices, which the Russian economy and military budget depend on," the author writes.
"Any prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz or destruction of the export capacities of the Persian Gulf countries for oil and gas could also revive the market for sanctioned Russian fuel. Tankers that have been idling with full holds of unsold oil after the US pressured India to cut purchases from Moscow would likely find buyers," Champion's column states.
As for missiles, their intensive use against Iran jeopardizes the supply of missiles for the Patriot system to Ukraine and pushes back the timeline for transferring Tomahawks to Kyiv even further. "Launching a Tomahawk or Patriot missile is a matter of minutes. Replacing it takes up to two years," the author writes.
"A sharp rise in global oil prices would help Moscow. So would any reduction in the availability of American missiles and interceptors or — even better — the formation in the White House of a sense that after Iran, the US needs a truce in Ukraine regardless of the terms. Any pressure that Putin might feel to make concessions for a durable peace agreement would dissipate," the article states.
"Trump and his national security advisors need to start weighing what else a protracted war with an already neutralized Iranian adversary might yield compared to the depletion of capabilities that the US may need to deter far more dangerous potential challenges — both from Moscow and Beijing," Champion concludes.
