Wall Street Journal: Russian losses in the war - about 1.2 million people, up to 325,000 killed

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Publiation data: 26.02.2026 10:16

There are signs that the recruitment of volunteers is struggling to cope with the rising casualties.

The Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southeast undermines Russia's advance and demonstrates that Ukraine still has plenty of strength to fight, and Vladimir Putin's victory is by no means inevitable. This is reported by The Wall Street Journal, analyzing the situation on the front after four years of Russian invasion.

1. Losses in the War

The total losses of Russian military personnel amount to about 1.2 million people, of which up to 325,000 have been killed, which is more than double the number of casualties in Ukraine. And although Russia has long been able to attract volunteers to the war with large payments, there are signs that the recruitment of volunteers is now struggling to cope with the rising casualties.

According to a Western official, in the last three months, Russia has been recruiting between 30,000 and 35,000 soldiers monthly, but the number of killed or wounded has been much higher.

While Russia has enough troops to sustain current operations, the shortage of troops is one of the reasons why Moscow may find it difficult to achieve major breakthroughs, some analysts believe.

At the same time, Ukraine is also struggling to recruit enough personnel.

"There are some signs that the Russians are recruiting fewer new recruits, but they are still recruiting more than the Ukrainians," said Major General Pekka Torunen, head of military intelligence in Finland.

2. Pace of Advancement in Individual Combined Arms Offensive Operations

According to one Western official, last year Russia managed to capture only about 0.8% of Ukrainian territory. Military intelligence from several European countries estimates that Russia will continue to gradually advance, but at the cost of very high losses:

"Russian troops are advancing mainly on foot in so-called infiltration groups - under artillery fire and drone attacks, trying to survive and waiting for reinforcements. This tactic leads to heavy Russian losses and weak control over captured territories, giving Ukraine the opportunity to fight back."

3. Counterstrike

Earlier this month, reports began to circulate online that Ukraine is counterattacking in Zaporizhzhia, where Russia has had the advantage in recent months. Soldiers stated that they took advantage of Russia's communication problems after Elon Musk's SpaceX disabled the Starlink system for Russian military operations in Ukraine.

Ukrainian officers say that the main goal is not to regain land but to strike at the weak points of the Russian military and force them to redeploy their own forces from other parts of the front.

4. Drone Advantage

Throughout 2025, Russia has steadily increased its advantage in medium-range drones, which have inflicted serious damage on Ukrainian supply lines, weakening Ukraine's positions on the front.

Russia has also upgraded its drones, equipping them with smuggled Starlink internet terminals, increasing their range and allowing them to bypass Ukrainian electronic warfare systems designed to destroy them.

However, earlier this month, the shutdown of Starlink limited Moscow's advantage on the battlefield. As a result, Ukrainian soldiers noted a significant decrease in drone strikes on the battlefield while Russia struggles to find a viable alternative.

5. Oil Problems

Oil is a crucial source of revenue for the Russian military machine - and a key target for Ukraine and its allies in pressuring Moscow.

New Western sanctions, the seizure of tankers from the "shadow fleet," and Trump's pressure on India to reduce purchases have led to a drop in prices for the main grade of Russian oil, known as "Urals." This grade is now trading at a significant discount compared to the international benchmark Brent.

"It used to seem that the economy was invincible, with revenues and GDP growing. This is no longer the case," says Janis Kluge, a researcher at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.

Ukraine's Successes on the Front

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz stated that Ukraine's fight against Russian attacks has been more effective than often reported, citing unexpected territorial gains this month.

As reported by the Independent, Ukraine has managed to regain control over 400 square kilometers of territory. It is noted that Ukrainian forces have managed to take control of eight settlements.