The largest automotive corporations in Germany may radically change by 2030 and may not survive in their current form. This warning was issued by the president of the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, German economist Moritz Shularik, commenting on structural changes in the global automotive industry. This was reported by Bloomberg.
According to him, the industry is undergoing a turning point, driven by the simultaneous influences of electrification, digitalization, and increasing international competition. In the new conditions, manufacturers are competing not only on the quality of cars but also on the level of software, the development of artificial intelligence, and autonomous driving systems.
Shularik noted that it is in digital technologies and software platforms that traditional European brands, including BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volkswagen, face serious pressure from technology-oriented companies, primarily from China and the United States. In his assessment, the emerging gap could threaten established business models and positions in key markets.
The economist emphasized that the transition to electric vehicles is only the first stage of a deeper transformation. Changes are affecting supply chains, manufacturing processes, employment structures, and the format of customer interaction. The development of proprietary software and digital ecosystems around the vehicle is becoming increasingly important.
At the same time, he believes that German corporations have opportunities for adaptation. As an example, Shularik cited the transformation of Volvo Cars after coming under the control of the Chinese group Geely, which allowed the company to accelerate technological renewal and rethink its development strategy.
The economist's statements have sparked discussion in Germany. The president of the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA), Hildegard Müller, described forecasts about the possible disappearance of brands as overly dramatic, but acknowledged that the industry faces serious challenges, including high energy costs, intensified international competition, and a complex regulatory environment.
