Russia represents a dominant military threat in close proximity to Sweden. This is stated in the annual report of the Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service (MUST).
The document states that Russia will continue to build up its military potential directed against Sweden and NATO, even considering changes in the course of the war in Ukraine.
Russia remains a defining factor in defense planning and military risk assessment for Sweden in the medium and long term.
Russia's behavior near Sweden is a key factor in the deterioration of security.
"In addition to Russia's large-scale aggression against Ukraine, we see that Russia's actions using hybrid means against NATO and the EU are becoming increasingly risky and reckless," writes the head of MUST, Lieutenant General Thomas Nilsson, in the review.
Russia actively employs hybrid methods of influence: sabotage and destruction of critical infrastructure; violations of airspace using aircraft and drones; cyberattacks, reconnaissance operations, and information influence.
The goal of such operations is to create instability, increase uncertainty and pressure, including attempts to weaken support for Ukraine and undermine the unity of NATO and the EU.
According to estimates from the Service, Russia prioritizes measures to strengthen its military potential in the region.
MUST estimates that Russia is gradually increasing its military capability in the Baltic Sea area and in close proximity to Sweden. Even if the war in Ukraine ends, the growth of the Russian armed forces' capabilities may accelerate, especially with the lifting of sanctions or the redistribution of resources from other directions.
Strategic Conflict with the West
Swedish intelligence emphasizes that the Russian leadership sees itself in a state of "strategic conflict with the West," with one of the goals being to change the existing world order. The Kremlin is prepared to use large-scale military violence to achieve political objectives, which is accompanied by significant human losses and destruction.
This military threat is perceived as real and concrete and requires attention and preparation from NATO countries and Sweden.
The report states that China and Russia are simultaneously developing their tools of influence - political, economic, and military, which affects the security of Sweden.
The Swedish Military Intelligence and Security Service also notes that international politics is increasingly characterized by competition between great powers, which are engaged in an increasingly fierce struggle for important resources, political influence, and access to key technologies. Political and economic means are used to exert pressure on other countries. One area where this is happening is the Arctic.
"Great power competition characterized the landscape of security politics even before Russia's attack on Ukraine in 2022, but the rivalry has intensified further, leading to a decrease in global stability and predictability," says Thomas Nilsson.
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