Ukrainian experts believe that currently, in the existing geopolitical situation, the most favorable moment has arrived for a possible military aggression by Russia and Belarus against the Baltic states.
Andrey Klimenko, director of the "Institute for Strategic Studies of the Black Sea," warns: there are signs and similarities with the period before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, including the growing aggressive and hostile rhetoric in Russian media, especially regarding Kaliningrad and the Baltic states.
He cites examples from Russian propaganda, where, for instance, Lithuania is referred to as a "geographical mistake" and a "nest of Russophobia" that "had to be destroyed." Kaliningrad is compared to Leningrad during the blockade, and NATO countries are likened to aggressors.
The expert emphasizes that Putin has lost influence on the world political stage and is seeking to restore his image as an "alpha male." Since this is no longer possible in Ukraine, he may turn against the Baltic states or attempt to overthrow Lukashenko in Belarus.
Klimenko believes that Russia acts not as a classical state but as a structure created by intelligence services, whose thinking is based on the tactics of intelligence agencies — using chaos and uncertainty to carry out aggressive actions such as provocations or relatively small military operations.
He also warns: currently, the West is preoccupied with its internal problems, and NATO's response to minor aggression, such as the capture of an Estonian island, may be delayed and insufficient. For Putin, the Baltic region is important not only strategically but also symbolically — it is linked to the desire to restore the influence of the USSR and equality with the USA, as it was during the Cold War.
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