Twelve scenarios of birth rates, death rates, and migration were assessed.
The State Data Agency (SDA) of Lithuania presents forecasts of the number of permanent residents for 2026–2100, prepared based on scenarios adapted to Lithuania.
Twelve scenarios of birth rates, death rates, and migration were assessed; the most likely (medium) scenario is recommended as the starting point, according to the SDA press release.
Key Points
According to the most likely scenario, by the beginning of 2050, there will be 2,680.2 thousand permanent residents in Lithuania, which is 210.4 thousand (7.3%) less than at the beginning of 2025 (2,890.7 thousand).
By the beginning of 2075, the forecast is 2,389.0 thousand residents (501.6 thousand, or 17.4%, less than in 2025). By the beginning of 2100, it is projected to be 2,152.2 thousand residents (738.5 thousand, or 25.5%, less than in 2025).
The change in the age structure of the population: the share of the population aged 65 and older may increase from 20.9% (2025) to 37.6% (2100).
The working-age population (15–64 years) will decrease from 1,878.9 thousand (2025) to 1,101.0 thousand (2100).
The number of women of reproductive age (15–49 years) will decrease from 597.9 thousand (2025) to 345.3 thousand (2100).
The average life expectancy will increase: by 2050, women will live up to 85.6 years, men up to 78.2 years; by 2100, it will be 90.8 years and 84.3 years, respectively.
What and Why is Being Forecasted?
The forecasts show a steady decline in the population and accelerated aging of society. A negative natural population growth is expected to persist (the number of deaths will exceed the number of births), while the negative natural growth will be partially offset by a positive balance of international net migration (the number of immigrants will exceed the number of emigrants).
Gender Structure: More Women Will Remain
Throughout the forecast period, there will be more women than men in Lithuania. At the beginning of 2050, there will be 75.5 thousand more women than men, in 2075 – 30.9 thousand more, and in 2100 – 38.0 thousand more (in 2050, women will make up 51.4%, in 2075 – 50.6%, in 2100 – 50.9% of the total permanent population).
Age Groups: Fewer Children and Working-Age People, More Elderly
By the beginning of 2050, it is projected that there will be 312.2 thousand (11.6%), by 2075 – 261.3 thousand (10.9%), and by 2100 – 241.1 thousand (11.2%) children aged 0–14 years. The number of people aged 65 and older will increase to 808.2 thousand in 2050 and 868.6 thousand in 2075, and in 2100 it will be 810.1 thousand (37.6%).
Birth Rate and Number of Women of Reproductive Age
The decrease in the number of women of reproductive age will be one of the factors determining the decline in birth rates in the long term. According to forecasts, in 2050, 20,151 children will be born, in 2075 – 17,661, and in 2100 – 15,330 (in 2025 – 19,381).
Important Note Regarding Assumptions
The forecasts are based on the dynamics of birth rates, death rates, and migration established in the scenarios, but do not take into account the impact of new factors and unexpected threats (geopolitical, climatic, or epidemiological) on demographic changes. In the event of significant changes in trends, the scenarios should be revised; the next revision is scheduled for 2027.
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