"If we are losing the war of attrition in the rear, it will sooner or later reflect on the front line."
According to political scientist and former military officer Viktor Taran, neither side of the war in Ukraine has been able to achieve a decisive advantage. The front line has largely remained unchanged, and the war has definitively transitioned into a format of resource, technological, and institutional endurance.
"This means a simple but harsh logic: the one who endures longer—economically, mobilizationally, and politically—will win. And here, Ukraine enters 2026 with serious internal problems: the budget is not adapted to a war of attrition, the economy has not been converted to a wartime footing, and the Ukrainian arms market remains underfunded and overregulated," Taran says.
One of the key negative conclusions of the year is the failure of internal communication from the authorities. The government, Taran believes, has not dared to speak honestly with society about the long war, mobilizational needs, and the real cost of resistance.
Instead, society has been fed expectations of a "quick peace" for years, which directly contradicts the reality of the front.
"If we are losing the war of attrition in the rear, it will sooner or later reflect on the front line," the political scientist believes.
A separate point of tension has been the permission for men aged 18-22 to leave the country. According to Taran, the consequences of this decision have turned out to be significantly broader than the age group itself: along with the youth, families, partners, future workers, and investors have also left the country.
The result is a blow to the consumer market, labor market, and investment potential, which becomes critical in the context of a war of attrition.
Military-political expert Dmitry Snegirev points out that two key vectors have been formed that will directly determine the further development of events in 2026—external and internal.
The first and defining vector is the negotiation process. According to him, the results of the so-called peace agreements become the main factor influencing not only diplomacy but also the nature of hostilities.
"The United States clearly communicates to both Ukraine and Russia that it advocates for the cessation of the active phase of hostilities. This is the main vector that will influence both the situation at the front and internal politics in 2026," Snegirev notes in an interview with the Ukrainian portal 'Focus'.
The second key external shift, the expert identifies, is the signing of an agreement on the joint use of subsoil resources, which he assesses as a strategic breakthrough.
"This is not just an economic agreement. These are political and economic guarantees for the existence of the Ukrainian state. It will shape Ukraine's economy and its foreign policy vector for decades to come," the expert emphasizes.
According to him, this concerns not only the recovery of the economy but also the development of the domestic defense industry, extraction, and processing sectors, which directly affects the country's defense capability.
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