A spike in bets on María Corina Machado from Venezuela was recorded just hours before the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, despite her not being mentioned among the contenders.
The Nobel Committee is investigating probable espionage by unknown individuals who, having learned in advance the name of the Nobel Peace Prize laureate, may have profited from betting, said Christian Berg Harpviken, head of the Nobel Institute, to Aftenposten on Saturday, October 11.
The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate is Venezuelan politician María Corina Machado. Just before the announcement of this decision, she was not on the lists of favorites or even contenders for the prize.
Suspicious Surge in Bets on the Nobel Prize Laureate
However, on the night before the committee's announcement, bets on her sharply increased on the betting site Polymarket. According to Aftenposten, just two hours before the announcement on the platform that allows betting on the outcomes of real events, Machado's odds of winning rose from 3.75% to 72.8%. At the same time, several large bets were placed on her, one of which amounted to $67,000.
According to Harpviken, given such suspicious bets, the most likely scenario appears to be a "digital leak." The head of the institute did not disclose details of the investigation and did not specify the number of people who knew the name of the laureate in advance. According to Norwegian media, only five people were supposed to know about the winner beforehand.
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