Millions of People in Danger: Hantavirus Outbreak on Cruise Ship is Just the Beginning 0 6

In a new alarming study conducted by a team from the University of California, scientists found that climate change in the future will lead to an increase in the "spread" of rodent-borne viruses. As global temperatures rise and rodent populations change, deadly arenaviruses will penetrate areas where such diseases were previously absent, writes Focus.

According to researchers' forecasts, this will trigger outbreaks that threaten to affect millions of people across South America. The alarming warning comes as people remain stranded aboard a cruise ship infected with hantavirus, carried by rats, off the coast of Cape Verde. Three passengers have already died from the virus, including a Dutch couple and a German citizen.

It is noted that the hantavirus outbreak occurred aboard the Dutch vessel MV Hondius, which had previously docked in Argentina; arenaviruses and hantaviruses claim the lives of dozens of people each year. Unfortunately, scientists believe that such outbreaks will become more frequent as the Earth's climate warms.

It is known that hantaviruses and arenaviruses are carried by rodents and are typically transmitted from animals to humans, rather than from person to person. These highly prevalent but poorly studied infections include the Guanarito virus in Venezuela and Colombia, the Machupo virus in Bolivia and Paraguay, and the Hantavirus in Argentina.

Studies show that the infection causes severe hemorrhagic fevers with high hospitalization rates and mortality rates ranging from 5% to 30%. Since these diseases are spread by rodents, their impact is closely linked to changes in rodent habitats.

Now research shows that climate warming leads to drastic changes in the ranges of disease-carrying animals. Previous studies have also shown that factors such as temperature and precipitation influence the risk of rodent-borne diseases.

In the new study, the team used machine learning to combine climate forecasts, population density forecasts, infection risks, and habitat suitability for six species of rats and mice associated with these viruses. New data indicate that the risk of infection with these dangerous diseases will change dramatically over the next 20–40 years, depending on the scenario.

According to the lead author of the study, Dr. Pranav Kulkarni from the University of California, Davis School of Veterinary Medicine, as climate change accelerates, the risk of infection with these dangerous viruses could affect millions of people. For example:

• The Guanarito virus, which is currently localized in central Venezuela, will spread to parts of Colombia, border areas of Suriname, and northern Brazil;
• The Machupo virus, which causes often fatal Bolivian hemorrhagic fever, will spread from the plains of Bolivia to the foothills of the Andes and mountainous areas;
• The Hantavirus, which causes Argentine hemorrhagic fever, will move from the steppe regions and spread to the rest of Argentina.

This will reduce the risk in some areas that have already learned to cope with the disease but will increase the danger of infection in others.